USDA WASDE
12 January 2012
USDA WASDE: US Wheat Ending Stocks Projected Slightly Lower
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected to go up with production raised for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Russia.
WHEAT: US wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are
projected slightly lower this month as reductions in expected domestic
use mostly offset higher projected exports. Food use is projected 5
million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported
by the North American Millers’ Association for July-September
2011. Feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels lower as 1
December stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks,
indicate lower-than-expected disappearance during September-November.
Seed use is raised 4 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted
area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings. Projected exports are
raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to
traditional markets. Increases for Hard Red Winter, White, and Soft
Red Winter wheat more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Spring
wheat. Ending stocks are projected 8 million bushels lower at 870
million. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per
bushel on each end of the range to $6.95 to $7.45 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 2.7 million tons
higher with production raised for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Russia.
Kazakhstan production is raised 1.5 million tons as nearly perfect
growing season weather is reflected in a new record yield. Production
is raised 0.8 million tons for Brazil, in line with the latest
government estimate. Production for Russia is raised 0.2 million tons
reflecting the latest official estimate.
Lower 2011/12 projected exports for Australia are more than offset by
increases for the United States and Russia. Global consumption is
raised with a 1.0-million-ton increase in expected domestic
disappearance in Kazakhstan where record supplies will be difficult to
store and maintain. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 1.5
million tons higher at 210.0 million.
COARSE GRAINS: US feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are
projected higher as an increase in estimated corn production more than
offsets a reduction for sorghum. Corn production is estimated 48
million bushels higher with a 0.5-bushel-per-acre increase in yield
and a 45,000- acre increase in harvested area. Sorghum production is
lowered 32 million bushels with yields estimated 0.9 bushels per acre
lower and harvested area reduced 503,000 acres.
Corn use for 2011/12 is raised with higher exports. Exports are
projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of
sales to date and reduced prospects for Argentina. Ending stocks are
projected 2 million bushels lower at 846 million bushels. The 2011/12
seasonaverage farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents per bushel on
each end of the range to $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel. Prices received by
producers to date have remained well below prevailing cash bids
limiting the upward potential for the season-average farm price.
Other 2011/12 feed grain changes this month include a reduction for
sorghum feed and residual use and an increase for barley feed and
residual use, as indicated by the 1 December stocks. Sorghum exports
are reduced with the smaller crop and sluggish export sales. The
sorghum farm price is projected 10 cents per bushel lower on both ends
of the range to $5.60 to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to
date. The barley farm price is projected at $5.15 to $5.65 per bushel
compared with $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel last month as reported farm
prices for malting barley drag down the season average for all barley.
The oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents per bushel on both ends
of the range to $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged this
month as higher corn production in the United States, Ukraine, EU-27,
and Russia is mostly offset by lower expected corn production in
Argentina and the lower sorghum production estimate for the United
States. Global barley and oats production are also raised, mostly
reflecting higher crop estimates from Russia.
Argentina 2011/12 corn production is lowered 3.0 million tons as
extended dryness since late November and periods of extreme heat in
late December and early January have sharply reduced yield prospects.
Recent rains have brought much needed relief from high temperatures
and dryness and are expected to stabilize crop conditions, but
substantial damage has been done, especially to corn that was exposed
to heat during pollination and early grain fill. Corn production is
raised 1.5 million tons for Ukraine based on the latest official
indications of record yields and output. EU-27 and Russia corn
production are each raised 0.4 million tons based on the latest
official estimates. Brazil corn production is unchanged as rising area
prospects for second crop corn offset a reduction in first crop yields
resulting from December and early January dryness in the southern
growing areas.
Global corn trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly with lower projected
corn exports from Argentina more than offset by higher exports from
the United States and Russia. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons for
China, more than offsetting reductions for Syria and Taiwan. World
corn ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons as lower stocks in
Argentina are more than offset by higher stocks in Ukraine and China.
At 128.1 million tons, global stocks are nearly unchanged from
2010/11.
RICE: The US 2011/12 rice crop is estimated at 185.0
million cwt, down 3.1 million from the previous estimate due primarily
to lower yields. Average yield is estimated at 7,067 pounds per acre,
down 100 pounds per acre from last month, but an increase of 342
pounds per acre from 2010/11. Harvested area is estimated at 2.618
million acres, down 6,000 acres from the previous estimate. Long-grain
rice production is estimated at 116.4 million cwt, down 1.1 million
from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is
lowered nearly 2.0 million to 68.6 million. Rice imports for 2011/12
are unchanged from last month.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Rice
Stocks reported total rough rice stocks at 146.9 million cwt as
of 1 December and total milled stocks at 6.2 million (9.1 million cwt
on a rough-equivalent basis). Total rice stocks on a rough-equivalent
basis are 155.9 million, down 15 per cent from a year earlier.
Long-grain stocks as of 1 December are estimated at 96.9 million
(rough-equivalent basis) and combined medium- and short-grain stocks
at 56.2 million.
Rice 2011/12 domestic and residual use is lowered 3.0 million cwt to
124.0 million cwt—all in the long-grain class. Long-grain
domestic and residual use is projected at 89.0 million cwt, and
combined medium- and short-grain at 35.0 million. The decrease in
domestic and residual use is implied from the higher-than-expected 1
December stocks estimate. All rice exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt
to 90.0 million—all in the long-grain class. The pace of exports
and sales of long-grain rice is lagging based on US Bureau of Census
data through October and US Export Sales data through
December. Long-grain exports to the Western Hemisphere have been
lagging due to competition from South America, principally Brazil.
Additionally, long-grain exports to the Middle East have been lagging
due to strong competition from other suppliers. Conversely, the pace
of sales of combined medium- and short-grain rice is supportive of the
current export forecast. The 2011/12 rough rice export projection is
lowered 1.0 million cwt to 33.0 million, while exports of combined
milled and brown rice are unchanged at 57.0 million cwt
(rough-equivalent basis). All rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are
projected at 38.5 million cwt, up 0.9 million from last month, but
down 10.0 million from 2010/11. Long-grain rice ending stocks are
forecast at 20.6 million cwt, up 2.9 million from last month, but a
decrease of 15.1 million from the previous year. Combined medium- and
short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 15.2 million cwt, 2.0
million below last month, but an increase of 5.1 million from
2010/11.
The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average farm price range is projected
at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month, while the
combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at
$15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end. The all
rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.80 per
cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on both ends of the range.
Global 2011/12 rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are
raised slightly, and trade is lowered from a month ago. The increase
in global rice production of 0.6 million tons to a record 461.4
million tons is due primarily to larger forecast crops for Bangladesh
and Cambodia, which are partially offset by reductions for Brazil,
Pakistan, North Korea, and the United States. Larger forecast Aus and
Aman seasonal rice crops in Bangladesh led to the forecast record crop
at 34.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from a month ago. Global domestic
disappearance (includes post-harvest losses) is raised mostly due to
increases for Cambodia and Thailand. Global trade is lowered as import
forecasts are reduced for Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Russia.
Export 2011/12 forecasts are lowered for Brazil, Thailand, and the
United States and raised for Cambodia. Global 2011/12 ending stocks
are forecast at 100.1 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month, an
increase of 2.9 million from 2010/11, and the largest stocks since
2002/03. Global ending stocks are up primarily due to increases for
Bangladesh, Thailand, and the United States, which are partially
offset by reductions for the Philippines and Brazil.
OILSEEDS: US oilseed production for 2011/12 is
estimated at 91.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month.
Larger crops for soybeans and canola are partly offset by reductions
for cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Soybean production is
estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million based on increased
yields. The soybean yield is estimated at 41.5 bushels per acre, up
0.2 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean crush is lowered 10
million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting industry-reported data
through the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean exports are
projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 25 million from last month
and down 226 million from 2010/11. Soybean ending stocks are projected
at 275 million bushels, up 45 million. Soybean product changes include
a lower soybean oil extraction rate, lower projected soybean oil
exports, and increased soybean oil ending stocks.
The 2011/12 US season-average soybean price range is narrowed 25 cents
on both ends of the range to $10.95 to $12.45 per bushel. The soybean
oil price is forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, unchanged from
last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $320 per
short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.4 million
tons, down 0.3 million with lower soybean production more than
offsetting higher projections for sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Global
soybean production is projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million
mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America. The
Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5
million due to lower projected area and yields. Excessive heat and dry
conditions since December throughout much of the principal growing
area is expected to limit soybean plantings and reduce yields from
earlier expectations. The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 1 million
tons to 74 million reflecting hot, dry conditions in recent weeks,
especially in the second largest producing state of Parana where
planting was more than half completed by late October. Favorable
growing conditions in the main center-west region are expected to
partly offset crop losses in the south. Global sunflowerseed
production gains mostly reflect larger crops in Russia and Ukraine.
Preliminary official harvest data from the State statistical agency
indicate a higher yield for Russia, resulting in a record
9.6-million-ton crop. Ukraine sunflowerseed production is projected
higher at a record 9.5 million tons based on increased harvested area.
Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Australia and
lower cottonseed production for India.
Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 113.1 million tons,
down 0.9 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower
soybean exports for Argentina and the United States are only partly
offset by an increase for Brazil. Imports are reduced for EU-27,
Russia, Taiwan, Japan, and Turkey. Soybean imports for China are
unchanged at 56.5 million tons. Global oilseed ending stocks are
projected at 74.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month as
reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset
by higher US soybean ending stocks.
SUGAR: Projected US sugar supply for fiscal year
2011/12 is decreased 578,000 tons, raw value, from last month, mainly
due to lower imports from Mexico. Mexico’s sugar exports are
reduced to reflect lower availability, as production is dropped based
on lower-than-expected sugarcane yields and sugar recovery from
harvested sugarcane for the season to date. Also, Mexico’s sugar
imports are lowered to reflect the slow pace of entries under two
previously announced tariff rate quotas (TRQ). Other reductions in US
supplies include a minor reduction in production (Texas) and TRQ
imports from Dominican Republic. Sugar use in the United States is
unchanged from last month.
COTTON: This month’s 2011/12 US cotton
estimates include slightly lower production and lower exports,
resulting in a net increase in ending stocks. Production is lowered
153,000 bales, as a reduction for upland cotton in Texas is partially
offset by higher estimated extra long staple (ELS) cotton production.
Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 300,000 bales to
11.0 million due to lower US supplies and strong competition from
foreign exports. Ending stocks are raised to 3.7 million bales,
equivalent to 25 per cent of total use. The forecast marketing-year
average price received by producers of 86 to 94 cents per pound is
narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.
The world 2011/12 cotton estimates show slightly lower production
compared with last month, with consumption reduced about 1 per cent.
Production is reduced mainly in India and the United States.
Consumption is estimated 1.0 million bales lower for China, as the
substantial accumulation of cotton in the national reserve is expected
to support prices and constrain mill use. Consumption also is reduced
for Thailand. World ending stocks are raised 700,000 bales to 58.4
million. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 53 per cent is above both
the 5- and 10-year averages.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2012 forecast of total red
meat and poultry production is raised from last month, largely
reflecting increased pork production. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and
Pigs report estimated that the second-half 2011 pig crop was just over
2 percent higher than 2010 and indicated that producers plan a slight
decline in sows farrowing in the first half of 2012. However, with
continued gains in pigs per litter, more hogs are expected to be
available for slaughter and the 2012 pork production forecast is
raised from last month. Beef production is little changed from last
month although adjustments are made to the quarters. USDA will release
its Cattle report on January 27, providing an indication of producer
intentions for heifer retention in 2012 and feeder calf availability.
Poultry production forecasts are unchanged. Egg production is lowered
slightly for 2012. For 2011, small changes are made, with beef and
pork production estimates raised, but broiler and turkey estimates
lowered. The egg production estimate is unchanged.
Trade forecasts for beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys are unchanged
for 2012. Beef, pork, and turkey estimates for 2011 are unchanged but
broiler exports are raised due to stronger-thanexpected shipments in
October.
Cattle prices for 2012 are unchanged from last month. The annual
average hog price is lowered reflecting a lower first-quarter price
forecast. The first-quarter broiler price is raised but the annual
price range is unchanged. Turkey and egg prices are raised from last
month. Prices for 2011 are adjusted to reflect December estimates.
The milk production forecast for 2011 is lowered slightly on lower
expected cow numbers for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2012
is unchanged from last month. Larger-than-expected cheese imports for
2011 and into 2012 boost fat-basis import forecasts, but the strength
of cheese imports in 2012 is offset by lower expected imports of skim
products resulting in a lower 2012 skim-solids import forecast. The
skim-solids exports estimate for 2011 is raised on higherthan-
expected October exports.
The forecast 2012 cheese price is lowered, but forecasts for nonfat
dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are raised. The higher whey price is
expected to more than offset the lowered cheese price forecast,
resulting in a higher forecast Class III price. The higher forecast
NDM price results in a higher Class IV price. The all milk price for
2012 is raised to $18.30 to $19.10 per cwt.
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