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USDA World Agricultural Production

11 July 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production July 2013USDA World Agricultural Production July 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production


Australia wheat production for 2013/14 is forecast at 25.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 3.4 million or 15 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.7 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month and up 0.5 million or 3 percent from last year.

After a delayed start to the season in the eastern states (including South Australia) conditions significantly improved with abundant June rainfall, which subsequently accelerated planting operations. The eastern half of Australia had experienced very dry autumn conditions leading up to and including the major planting month of May. Western Australia had a more favorable start to the season. The wheat areas of Western Australia received average to above average rainfall amounts, well timed for planting.

Sowing operations are mostly complete with only a few areas remaining in the far south of the country and these will be completed in mid-July. Subsoil moisture levels are relatively low because of the below-average rainfall prior to June. Growing conditions for Australia 2013/14 wheat crops are generally favorable across most regions of the cropping zone.

Argentina Wheat: Weather Conditions Limited 2012/13 Production






The USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2012/13 at 10 million tons, down 9 percent from last month and down 35 percent from 2011/12. Area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares, down 5 percent from last month and down 32 percent from 2011/12. Yield is forecast at 2.86 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 5 percent from 2011/12. Heavy rains following the early dry conditions in the Pampas affected wheat production. Some areas such as portions of Rosario and in the northwest portions of the province of Buenos Aires received more than twice the expected rainfall for the season. Later, field ponding and soil saturation conditions allowed disease to strike the heavily flooded fields where the wheat crop remained standing. Additionally, it slowed seed head maturation and lowered yield potential. In cases where timely spraying could not be achieved to prevent disease introduction, the yield and production suffered.



 Argentina Soybeans: 2012/13 Soy Finishes with Lower than Expected Area Harvested

                                                                                                                  Argentina 2012/13 soybean production is estimated at 50.2 million metric tons, 2 percent less than last month but 25 percent more than 2011/12. Production was harvested from an estimated 18.9 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month. Yield is estimated at 2.66 tons per hectare, about the same as last month. Dry conditions have allowed for rapid harvest in the last two weeks. Some yields, especially in the northern growing regions, continued to not hit early season expectations and remained moderate due to earlier heat and dry conditions during seed fill. Southern Cordoba and Northwest Buenos Aires province fields showed average to lower yields as expected due to July 2013 3 early-season dryness followed by heavy rains at the end of January and into February, decreasing overall harvested area and production.

 Similarly, 2013/14 soybean harvested area is reduced this month by 2.5 percent to 19.5 million hectares. Production for 2013/14 is forecast at 53.5 million tons, down from 54.5 million last month. Yield is forecast at 2.7 tons per hectare, slightly higher than last month. Planting in Argentina won’t begin until November. Area is expected to increase but at a lower rate than in 2012/13 because of high current stocks. Soy has remained strongly favored by Argentine farmers in the past, with increases of two to five percent each year.










Paraguay Soybeans: 2012/13 Harvest Production Surpasses Expectations

Paraguay’s harvest for the 2012/13 soybeans is estimated at 9.37 million metric tons, 12 percent more than last month and 132 percent more than the 2011/12 drought-affected crop. An estimated 3.16 million hectares, 5 percent more than last month and 7 percent more than 2011/12, was harvested. The increased area is attributed to expanded large farmer and group holdings along with extremely good early and seasonal weather conditions. Yield is forecast at 2.97 tons per hectare, 7 percent more than last month estimate and 117 percent more than the previous year. Yields benefitted from timely rains, warm temperatures, and favorable harvest weather, which helped Paraguay to quickly get beans out of the field and into storage.


 Indonesia Corn: 2012/13 Production Forecast Lower Owing to Heavy Rainfall

The USDA forecasts total corn production in Indonesia for 2012/13 at 8.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 11 percent from last month and down 10 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, down 0.1 million or 4 percent from last month owing to farmers switching some lands to rice during the current dry season. Yield is estimated at 2.67 tons per hectare, down 8 percent from last month and down 6 percent from 2011/12. Wellabove normal rainfall has been occurring over much of the primary corn growing regions for the past several months, coinciding with the normal dry season. The excessive rainfall pattern has encouraged farmers to reduce corn acreage in favor of rice. The overly wet conditions are expected to increase the likelihood of lower yields owing to higher pest and disease problems in the dry season corn crops (2nd and 3rd seasonal crops). The wet conditions are also hampering proper drying and storage of corn harvested in the June/July period, which is the second of three annual crops.

 Ukraine Sunflowerseed: Localized Heat Reduces Yield Prospects in Eastern Ukraine

The USDA forecasts Ukraine sunflowerseed output for 2013/14 at 10.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last month but up 1.0 million or 11 percent from last year. The decrease is attributed to unfavorably high temperatures in parts of Ukraine’s main sunflower zone beginning in early June and continuing through early July, while the sunflower crop was in the vegetative stage of development. Satellite-derived vegetative indices indicate that early-July crop conditions were below normal in parts ofeastern and southern Ukraine, but above normal in the remainder of the country. Despite the month-to-month reduction, the forecast yield of 1.67 tons per hectare remains 5 percent above the 5-year average. Favorably dry weather during April and May allowed for planting of this year’s sunflower crop to proceed at a rapid pace and was essentially complete by early June. Harvested area is unchanged at 6.0 million hectares, matching last year’s level. July typically is a critical month for sunflowers because the crop is advancing through the flowering stage and is more vulnerable to damage in the event of excessive temperatures.

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