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USDA World Agricultural Production

12 August 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - August 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - August 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production

India's 2013/14 soybean production is forecast at a record 12.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 2.5 percent from last month and up approximately 7 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 11.9 million hectares, up 8 percent from last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.03 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month, and down 2.5 percent from last year.

India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions. The major factors shaping the USDA’s current forecast are increased plantings and lower-than-expected yields due to excess rainfall across the major soybean growing regions. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). Soybean sowing operations are in progress. The optimal planting period is mid-June to mid-July. According to official Government of India sowing progress reports, at the end of July area sown was at 11.88 million hectares, representing a 15- AFWA/LIS Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation Excess seasonal precipitation across major soybean areas b b i World Agricultural Production2 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The sown area is nearly 100 percent of USDA’s projected area. Early and widespread monsoon rainfall encouraged plantings, resulting in record plantings across the country.

The major soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and southeast Rajasthan received significantly above normal precipitation in June and July. The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started a month early and has been characterized as widespread with favorable-toexcess distribution. Overall cumulative rainfall is up 16 percent from the long-term average. The rainfall departures from normal range from 38 percent in North West India, 42 percent in Central India, and 27 in percent South Peninsula. In northeast India, however, cumulative rainfall is down 35 percent. The continued excess rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan is raising major concerns to the yield prospects for soybean. There is general agreement among observers and experts that excess rainfall is likely to result in significantly lower-than-expected yields. Satellite derived indices indicate increased plantings and above vegetative vigor across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and southeast Rajasthan.

 EU Wheat: Third Best on Record The 2013/14 European Union (EU) wheat crop is estimated at 141.4 million tons, up 2.8 million tons or 1.9 percent from last month, and up 8.3 million tons or 6.3 percent from last year. The estimated output is 1.5 million tons above the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 26.0 million hectares, similar to last month, but up 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year. The 5-year average for EU wheat area is 26.1 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 5.43 tons per hectare, up from 5.33 last month and up from 5.15 tons last year. The 5-year average yield is 5.36 tons per hectare.

Favorable July weather promoted yield potential and reduced growth delays that were incurred earlier in the season. Below normal temperatures prevailed across Europe until mid-April, hindering crop development. During May and June, aboveaverage rainfall saturated soils and slowed field work, but periods of dryness allowed soils to drain. The abundant soil moisture aided grainfill. Aboveaverage July temperatures and mostly dry conditions accelerated crop development and bolstered yield.

The largest production increase was in Spain where harvesting is now finished after a favorably wet growing season.Spain’s production is up 0.8 million tons from last month and up 2.6 million tons from last year to 7.7 million tons. France and Germany, the top two wheat producing countries, had favorable soil moisture and moderate temperatures during July. These beneficial conditions led to production increases of 0.65 million tons in France to 38.6 million, and 0.5 million tons in Germany to 24.2 million. Harvest results in Romania and Bulgaria were better than expected with production up 0.3 million tons to 7.1 million in Romania, and up 0.25 million tons to 4.55 million in Bulgaria. Although yield in the United Kingdom improved during July, the estimated crop of 11.9 million tons remains the lowest since 2001.

Kazakhstan Wheat: Outstanding Yield Prospects in the Main Production Zone
USDA forecasts Kazakhstan wheat production for 2013/14 at 17.0 million tons, up 2.5 million tons or 17 percent from last month and up 7.2 million tons or 73 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares against 12.4 million last year. Yield is estimated at 1.36 tons per hectare, up 17 percent from last month and up 72 percent from last year. Spring wheat accounts for about 95 percent of the country’s total wheat output, and about 85 percent of the spring wheat is grown in three territories in north-central Kazakhstan. Yield prospects are high following generous July rainfall. The amount of total precipitation from April through July was among the highest in the past 20 years, and conditions in the key production region were favorable as the wheat crop advanced through the critical flowering stage in mid- to late July. The spring-wheat harvest typically begins in late August and is largely complete by the end of September.

 Argentina: Dry Weather Hinders Planting USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2013/14 at 12 million tons, down 1 million tons or 8 percent from last month but up 20 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.9 million hectares, down 7 percent from last month but up 11 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.08 tons per hectare, down less than a percent from last month but up 8 percent from last year.

Dry weather over the last two years in the northwestern provinces of Salta, Tucuman, and Santiago del Estero coupled with a shortage of quality seed in the central regions, limited wheat planting this year, leading to the reduction of expected area. Planting is almost finished in Argentina with the last of the seeding going into the most productive region of southern and western Buenos Aires province. Scattered rains throughout the core of the southern wheatgrowing areas have provided adequate soil moisture for emerging and establishing wheat. Much of the planted crop is at one to three leaves, with just a few very early planted fields just beginning to enter tillering. 

Argentine wheat export taxes and complications with the new pay-back tax break for producers, are limiting grower’s enthusiasm for increasin wheat area.

Ukraine Wheat: Harvest Reports Indicate Above-Average Yield USDA forecasts Ukraine wheat production for 2013/14 at 21.5 million tons, up 2.0 million tons or 10 percent from last month and up 5.7 million tons or 36 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 6.5 million hectares, up 0.9 million from last year, which was marked by excessive fall dryness that destroyed over 15 percent of the winter wheat. (Ukraine’s winter wheat is planted in the fall and harvested the following summer.) Weather data and satellite imagery indicated deteriorating crop conditions in May following six consecutive weeks of dry weather and unusually high temperatures that depleted subsurface moisture reserves. The crop rebounded substantially during June with the timely arrival of beneficial rain. The harvest began in late June, about two weeks earlier than usual, and reports indicate above-average yields in most regions. Wheat yield for 2013/14 is estimated at 3.31 tons per hectare, up 18 percent from last year and 6 percent above the 5-year average.

Ukraine Corn: Record Harvest Forecast for 2013/14
USDA forecasts Ukraine corn production for 2013/14 at a record 29.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons or 12 percent from last month and up 8.1 million tons or 39 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 4.8 million hectares, up from 4.4 million last year and surpassing the previous record of 4.5 million in 1963/64. Conditions in the main cornproduction region have been generally favorable. Precipitation has been adequate (but not as abundant as in 2011 when yield soared to a record 6.44 tons per hectare), and temperatures have not been excessively high. Yield for 2013/14 is forecast at 6.04 tons per hectare, up 26 percent from last year and 19 percent above the 5-year average. Harvest typically begins in early September.

China Rice: Lower Yield Due to Drought in Southern China
China’s rice production for 2013/14 is estimated at 143.0 million tons (milled basis), down 1 million tons or nearly 1 percent from last month but equal to last year’s record output. The estimated area of 30.6 million hectares is unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million from last year. Planted area has increased steadily over the past 10 years in response to government policies. The estimated yield of 6.68 tons per hectare is down nearly 1 percent from last month but close to the 5-year average. 

A serious drought in central and southwest China has depleted soil moisture, reduced irrigation supplies, and stressed the late rice and single rice crops, now in the vegetative to heading stages of development. The drought did not affect the early rice crop, which was harvested in July. A preliminary government estimate put the 2013/14 early rice crop at 23.6 million tons (33.7 million, paddy basis), up 1.2 percent from the previous year. The growing conditions for single and late rice in other parts of China have been generally favorable this summer.

China Cotton: Unusual Weather in Major Cotton Regions
China’s cotton production for 2013/14 is forecast at 33.0 million bales (7.185 million tons), down 3 percent from last month and down 6 percent from last year. The estimated area of 5.1 million hectares is unchanged this month but down 4 percent from last year. Farmers reduced cotton area in eastern China for several reasons: high grain prices, rising production costs, yield volatility, and weak demand. Planted area remained stable in western China. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,409 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year’s record yield. The yield revision is based on less-than ideal summer weather in several of China’s important cotton regions.

 Xinjiang province accounts for about 45 percent of China’s cotton area and more than 50 percent of total production. It was cooler than normal during June and July in northern Xinjiang, and several locations reported heavy rainfall and hail damage. However, weather conditions in southern Xinjiang (China’s highest-yielding region) have been generally favorable. Unusually heavy rain in July and August has drenched the cotton crop on the North China Plain, with Hebei and Shandong hit particularly hard. The two provinces account for about 25 percent of total cotton area. Elsewhere, an ongoing drought is affecting the lower Yangtze River Basin and southwest China, where about 15 percent of China’s cotton is grown. 

The crop is currently in the flowering-to boll-formation stage, and Chinese officials have expressed concern about possible yield losses from waterlogging, damaged flowers and bolls, and excess vegetative growth (in the wet areas) and water shortages and heat stress in the drought-impacted areas of the south. The weather during the open-boll and harvesting stages (September and October) will play a critical role in determining China’s cotton yield this year.

 Canada: Rapeseed Production Forecast at Record Level 

USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada rapeseed production at a record level of 15.3 million tons, up 2 percent from last month and nearly 15 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 7.90 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down nearly 8 percent from last year. Yield is forecas at 1.94 tons per hectare, up nearly 25 percent from last year and 5 percent above the 5 year average. 

Sufficient precipitation coupled with normal temperatures has advanced crop development despite the late start. Warmer temperatures in the latter part of June and the beginning of July promoted flowering throughout the western prairies. MODIS/NDVI vegetation indices show above average crop vigor and higher than 2009 when record yields were achieved. Recent provincial reports from the major producers--Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba--confirmed NDVI analysis. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan provincial reports rated 85 percent of the crop as good to excellent. 

Statistics Canada 2013 June Principal Field Crops Areas reported that planting intentions for rapeseed at 7.97 million hectares, the first decrease in area seeded since 2006. Seeded area in both Saskatchewan and Alberta, which comprise roughly 85 percent of total production, are expected to drop 8 and 6.5 percent, respectively. Farmers shifted rapeseed production to crops with lower input costs such as wheat and barley.

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