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USDA World Agricultural Production

12 September 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - September 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - September 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production


Wheat production in the European Union (EU-28) for 2013/14 is estimated at 142.9 million tons, up 1.5 million tons or 1.1 percent from last month, up 9.8 million tons or 7.4 percent from last year and is up 3.0 million tons or 2.2 percent above the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 26.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, up 0.2 million from last year, and down 0.1 million from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 5.49 tons per hectare, up from 5.43 tons last month, up 5.15 tons from last year and up 5.36 tons compared to the 5-year average.

Unseasonably cold and wet spring weather resulted in delayed development for EU winter wheat. Favorably warm and dry weather during July and August enabled crop development to accelerate, in the U.K., Germany and Poland.

Abundant seasonal rainfall triggered record or bumper harvests for crops in the Balkan countries of Romania and Bulgaria. Hungary, Croatia, and non-EU member Serbia did not receive significant summer rainfall; however, they did receive enough spring precipitation to provide sufficient soil moisture until their July harvest. \

The largest change to September EU wheat production is a 0.5-million-ton or 2 percent increase in Germany to 24.7 million, second largest producer in the EU. Romania and Bulgaria wheat production is estimated up 0.3 and 0.2 million tons to 7.4 and 4.8 million tons, respectively. Estimated production in the United Kingdom continues to rise after a very poor start to the season, climbing from a forecast 11.6 million tons in May to 12.1 million tons in September. Additional increases in production include Hungary (up 0.2 million), Poland (up 0.1 million), as well as nominal amounts from the Czech Republic. Non-EU Serbia increased 0.2 million tons. Only Bulgaria had an area change – down 10 thousand hectares from 1.15 million to 1.14 million hectares.

Russia Wheat: As Harvest Begins, Good Conditions for Spring Wheat in Siberia

The USDA forecasts Russia wheat production for 2013/14 at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 16.3 million or 43 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged at 24.0 million hectares and yield is estimated at 2.25 tons per hectare, 5.1 percent above the 5-year average. Winter-wheat harvest was essentially complete in European Russia by mid- August with reports from the Ministry of Agriculture suggesting net output of 34 to 35 million tons, an increase roughly 9 million tons from last year. The potential yield for spring wheat in western Siberia is high, although late planting and cool early-season weather delayed crop development by two to three weeks, increasing the risk of weather-related harvest losses. Early-September weather, however, has been favorably warm and dry in Siberia and harvest operations are progressing at a rapid pace.

Canada Wheat: Production Forecast at a 22-Year Record

The USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada wheat production at 31.5 million tons, up 16 percent from last year and 6.8 percent from last month. Area is estimated at 10.5 million hectares, up 10 percent from last year and 1.9 percent from the previous month. Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, up nearly 5 percent from last year.

USDA is estimating record yields, despite a late planting start due to lingering snow cover and below normal temperatures that resulted in waterlogged fields throughout the western Prairies. Favorable weather during June and July enabled crops to compensate for the delayed start. Satellite-derived MODIS/NDVI indicates crop conditions slightly better than last year, above the 5-year average and above 2011 when the record yield was set. Recent provincial reports from the major wheat producers, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba, confirmed NDVI analysis. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan provincial crop reports rated 88 percent of the crop as good to excellent in their most recent crop reports dated August 27, 2013.

 Ukraine Sunflowerseed: Favorable August Weather Boosts Yield Prospects

The USDA forecasts Ukraine sunflowerseed output for 2013/14 at 11.5 million tons, up 1.1 million or 11 percent from last month and up 2.5 million or 28 percent from last year. Estimated harvested area is unchanged at 6.0 million hectares, matching last year’s level. The month-tomonth increase in estimated production is based on favorable August weather. Although temperatures have been above normal throughout much of the growing season, maximum daily temperatures were not high enough to place sunflowers under stress for an extended period of time, as occurred last season. This year’s crop benefited from the absence of heat-related stress combined with adequate subsurface soil moisture, and yield is estimated at a record 1.92 tons per hectare, 21 percent above the 5-year average.

India Peanuts: Favorable Prospects for the 2013/14 Crop

The USDA forecast India's 2013/14 peanut production at 5.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 10 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 5.4 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares or 8 percent from both last month and last year. The yield is forecast at 1.02 tons per hectare, up 1.8 percent from both last month and last year.

The major factors shaping the USDA’s current forecast are increased plantings and higher-thanexpected yields across all the major peanut producing states of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. Sowing operations have progressed well across the region encouraged by favorable monsoon rainfall. Early and widespread monsoon rainfall encouraged plantings. According to official Government of India sowing progress reports at the end of August, area sown was at 4.12 million hectares, representing a 14 percent increase compared to the same time last year. Approximately 75 percent of the crop is grown during the kharif (monsoon) season (June-October) and the rest during rabi (winter) season (November-May). The favorable monsoon rainfall has also resulted in improved crop conditions.

Most of the major peanut growing areas received significantly abovenormal precipitation in June, July and August. The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started a month early and has been characterized as widespread with favorable distribution. Overall cumulative rainfall is up 16 percent above the long-term-average, including 22 percent in North West India, 35 percent in Central India and 23 percent in the South Peninsula. Satellite imagery observations and analysis continue to indicate increased plantings and increased vegetative indices across the major peanut growing areas.

Brazil Soybeans: Record Production due to Increased Planting Prospects

The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 88.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons or 3.5 percent from last month and up 6.0 million tons or 6.8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 28.9 million hectares, up 0.65 million hectares from last month and up 1.2 million hectares or 4.3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.04 tons per hectare, an increase of less than1.2 percent from last month and close to trend yield.

Brazilian farmers are expected to increase soybean area by 4.3 percent because of higher expected profits. The Brazilian real has declined in value relative to the U.S. dollar about 16 to 19 percent in the past 6 months. Depreciation results in higher values for exported soybeans which are sold on the global market. On the other hand, the prices of imported inputs such as fertilizers and insecticides are expected to increase. Price increases for urea have been reported but potash prices have fallen. The increases in input prices are lower than the increases in the value of the soybeans in real terms and higher profits are expected.

Soybean planting begins in mid- September in most parts of the country. Most of the Brazilian states abide by the anti-rust consortium’s planting recommendations. These are fallow periods of either 60 or 90 days where farmers agree not to plant soybeans. This rule minimizes the inoculum for Asiatic Soybean Rust; the rust spore can survive about 50 days. In Mato Grosso—Brazil’s leading soybean-producing state— soybean planting can begin after September 15 but usually starts in October after the rainy season has started. Planting early does not guarantee a yield boost for farmers, but it does allow for an earlier soybean harvest, which is beneficial for planting second-crop corn.

Iran Wheat:2013/14 Production Strong- But, Production Lowered on Less than Expected Yeild

 The USDA estimate for Iran wheat yield for 2013/14 is 2.07 million tons per hectare, down from 2.21 million tons last month. Both 2013/14 wheat production and yields for Iran were above last year with a crop production estimated at 14.5 million tons, which 500,000 tons above last year’s crop. Good weather conditions throughout the Middle East resulted in above-average winter grains crops across the Fertile Crescent (Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran). Satellite imagery derived “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI – a measure of active plant biomass) anomaly indicated an above average crop.

 Argentine Corn: Rain Needed Before the Main Planting Season Begins

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2013/14 at 26.0 million metric tons, 3.7 percent below last month and 1.9 percent below last year. The harvested area is forecast at 3.37 million hectares, 3.7 percent lower than last month and 16 percent less than last year. Yield is estimated at 7.72 tons per hectare, about the same as last month, and 16 percent higher than last year.

Shifting international prices are expected to encourage farmers to plant less area to corn and more to soybeans. The combination of lower corn prices, high production costs and a generally weaker financial situation for most producers is showing up in slow corn pre-season sales. Only a few fields in the delegations of Maria Juana and Villa Ocampo within the province of SantaFe have been planted. Rain would be beneficial for corn germination, within these early planted fields. Seeding will begin in the main growing regions in Buenos Aires and Cordoba, toward the end of September.

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