USDA GAIN: Mexican Rice Production Forecast Lower

USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Reports » USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed » USDA GAIN: Mexican Rice Production Forecast Lower

13 January 2012

Marketing year (MY) 2011/12 rice production (rough production) and harvested area estimates have been lowered by 42,000 metric tons (MT) to 157,000 MT due to lower-than-previously estimated planted area in Mexico.

Report Highlights:

There are no changes to Post estimates of corn, sorghum, wheat, and dry bean supply and demand. The Post/New rice import estimates for MY 2009/10 and MY2010/11 were revised downward and upward, respectively, which resulted in ending rice stocks decreasing and increasing as well.

General Information:

Production:

The Post/New rice production estimate has been revised downward from USDA/Official figures for MY 2011/12 to 157000 MT (rough production). This decrease is due to a lower-than-previously estimated planted area in Mexico’s rice producing areas. The reduced rough production is equivalent to 105,000 MT of milled rice. According to the Mexican Rice Council (MRC), as a result of the bankruptcy of the major rice milling company that traditionally used to acquire 35 percent of domestic production, many paddy rice growers decided to reduce their planting levels (see 2011 GAIN report MX1006 January Update for Corn and Rice). The MRC stated many paddy rice growers faced serious problems in recovering the payments for their harvest last year due to this bankruptcy. Therefore, these growers were not eligible for credits for the current year and could not sign forward contracts with any rice buyer. Moreover, in states such as Campeche, growers decided to switch from rice to soybean and safflower, taking advantage of the governmental Pro Oilseeds program (see 2011 GAIN Report MX1023 2011 Oilseeds Annual).

The Post/New production and harvested area estimates for MY 2010/11 have been revised downward from USDA/Official figures. These changes reflect the most recent data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fishery and Food (SAGARPA). Similarly, Post/New rice harvested area and production estimates for MY 2009/10 have been revised slightly upward and downward, respectively, based on final official data.

Consumption:

The Post/New MY2011/12 rice consumption estimate has been revised upwards from 865,000 MT to 885,000 MT based on new information from industry sources. Similarly, the Post/New MY2010/11 rice consumption estimate has been revised upward by 35,000 MT to 855,000 MT based on this new information. The increased consumption estimates reflect information suggesting that prices are competitive and that consumer purchasing power continues its recovery. Moreover, rice continues to be a staple food for the majority of lower income families in Mexico. The Post/New MY2009/10 consumption estimate remain the same as previous estimates and has been bolstered by more accurate and current data from industry sources and official data.

Trade:

The Post/New import estimates for MY 2009/10 and MY2010/11 were revised downward and upward, respectively, in order to reflect official data from SAGARPA and the General Customs Directorate of the Secretariat of Finance (SHCP). Also, the Post/New export estimates for MY2009/10 and MY2011/12 have decreased to 4,000 and 3,000 MT, respectively, reflecting final official data from SAGARPA and the SHCP for the first year and private sources for the second year.

Stocks:

The MY 2009/10 Post/New ending stock estimate was revised downward from the USDA/Official estimate due to lower-than-previously-estimated total imports and production. Also, the FAS/Post ending stocks estimate for MY2010/11 has been increased to 213,000 MT, because higher-than-expected imports. This is reflected in the upward adjustment for MY 2011/12 carryover, as well.

USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed