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USDA World Agricultural Production

08 November 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - 8 November 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - 8 November 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production

The USDA forecasts Argentine sorghum production for 2013/14 at 4.6 million metric tons, 15 percent below September’s estimate and 8 percent below the 5.0 million tons grown last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.0 million hectares, 17 percent lower than September’s estimate and 13 percent less than last year. Yield is estimated at 4.60 tons per hectare, 2.0 percent higher than September’s estimate, and 5.8 percent higher than last year.

Argentine producers are facing low returns due to a drop in crop prices and an unfavorable exchange rate. Many farmers will likely switch from sorghum to soybeans due to its profitability and marketability. A larger world production of feed grains from the northern hemisphere is providing strong competition for Argentine sorghum and reducing export demand.

Russia Wheat: Harvest Complete With Yields Slightly Above Average

The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2013/14 at 51.5 million tons, down 2.5 million from the September estimate, but up 13.8 million or 37 percent from last year. Estimated harvested area is reduced from 24.0 to 23.5 million hectares and yield is estimated at 2.19 tons per hectare, down 2.6 percent from the September estimate, but up 24 percent from last year and 2.4 percent above the 5-year average.

The reduction in estimated output is attributed largely to weather-related harvest difficulties. Due to persistently wet weather during August and September, farmers were unable to harvest about 15 percent of the sown wheat area in the Volga and Ural Districts. In the Siberian District, however, over 97 percent of the planted wheat area was harvested despite late planting and delayed development during the growing season.



Canada Wheat: Production Estimated at a Record Level

The USDA estimates 2013/14 Canada wheat production at 33.25 million tons, up nearly 22 percent from last year and 5.4 percent from September. Area is estimated at 10.27 million hectares, up 8.2 percent from last year and down 2.1 percent from September. Yield is forecast at 3.23 tons per hectare, up nearly 13 percent from a year ago.

Yield is estimated at a record level despite a late start to planting. Planting was delayed because of lingering snow cover, below normal temperatures and waterlogged fields throughout the western Prairies. Above normal temperatures in the latter part of June-July enabled crop development to accelerate. Satellite-derived MODIS/NDVI indicate potential yield above the record level of 2011.

Provincial reports from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba indicate that harvest is virtually complete with reported yield at 25 percent to 36 percent above the 10-year average. 

Spain Barley: Record Yield Boosts Production to Bumper Level

Barley production for Spain in 2013/14 is estimated at 9.8 million tons compared to the September estimate of 9.25 million and 5.98 million last year. The bumper crop is 19 percent above the 5-year average of 8.2 million tons. Estimated area remains unchanged from the September estimate at 2.7 million hectares, and is virtually unchanged from last year’s rounded estimate of 2.7 million hectares. Yield is estimated at a record 3.61 tons per hectare. Yield increased from 3.41 tons in September, 2.23 tons last year and spiking 30 percent above the fiveyear average of 2.78 tons.

Spain harvests more barley area than any other country within the European Union (EU). This year favorable, above-average spring rainfall boosted production to the highest level since 2008/09. For the 2013/14 season, 2.7 million hectares were harvested in Spain, 1.6 million in France and 1.6 million in Germany. France and Germany are the number two and number three place holders, respectively. Spain has a relatively dry climate, typically limiting its yield potential, but when rainfall is above-average during the growing season, yields increase considerably. In general, growing conditions for barley are usually more favorable in the cooler and more humid climates further north and east, enabling France and Germany to consistently take the top two production spots, with 10.5 and 10.4 million tons respectively, this year. Total 2013/14 EU harvested area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, with production of 59.3 million tons and a yield of 4.81 tons per hectare.

Russia Corn: Harvest Reports Indicate a Record-Breaking Crop

Russia corn production for 2013/14 is estimated at a record 11.5 million tons, up 2.5 million or 28 percent from September’s estimate and up 3.3 million or 40 percent from last year. The estimated harvested area is increased from 2.15 million hectares to a record 2.25 million. Yield is estimated at a record 5.11 tons per hectare, up 22 percent from September’s estimate, up 21 percent from last year, and 35 percent above the 5-year average.

Although some of Russia’s top corn-producing territories were subject to below-normal subsurface moisture reserves in mid-summer, the crop was not subject to the unusually high July and August temperatures that have reduced yield in several recent years. As of November 5, harvest was complete on 57 percent of the planted area, compared to 73 percent last year and 56 percent in 2011.

India Soybeans: Estimated Production Decreased Following Excessive Rain

The USDA forecast of India's 2013/14 soybean production is 11.8 million tons, down 0.5 million or 4.1 percent from the September forecast and up 2.6 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from September and up 13 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, down 4.1 percent from the September estimate, and down 9.2 percent from last year, and below the long term average. India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions.

The major factors shaping the current forecast are record plantings and below average projected yield due to excess rainfall across the major soybean growing regions. Soybean sowing operations progressed very well. The optimal planting period is mid-June to mid-July. According to official Government of India sowing progress reports at the end of October, the area sown was at 12.22 million hectares, representing a 13 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Early and widespread monsoon rainfall encouraged record plantings across the country. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent).

Most of the major soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and southeast Rajasthan received significantly above-normal precipitation in June, July and August. The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started a month early and has been characterized as excessive, but with widespread and generally favorable distribution. Overall cumulative rainfall was up 16 percent from the long-term average. The rainfall departures from normal range from 38 percent North West India, 42 percent Central India and 27 percent in the South Peninsula. Throughout the season the continued excessive rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan November 2013 5 50% 50% In September 50% of the rice crop in Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam was predominantly at eargrowth to early grain filling stages, and 50% was at panicle initiation stages. During these critical reproductive stages the soil moisture conditions were relatively less than favorable due to water deficits. The soil moisture conditions showed signs of improvement in October. (picture curtsey of USDA/FAS/OGA) raised major concerns to the growth, development and productivity of soybeans. There is general agreement among observers and crop production experts that the excess rainfall during the major part of the growing season subsequently resulted in significantly lower-than expected yields.

India Rice: Declining Prospects for Kharif (summer) Crop Production

India's 2013/14 rice production is forecast at 105 million tons, down 3.0 million metric tons or 2.8 percent from USDA’s September forecast, but up 0.6 percent from last year’s output. Area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, 2.2 percent down from the September estimate, but up 2.6 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.62 tons per hectare, down 1.9 percent from last year.

The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started earlier and was well distributed across the major rice growing regions. The early start and heavy rains slowed rice seedling nursery preparations, resulting in delayed transplanting, and subsequently affected overall area planted especially in Utter Pradesh, Bihar, and western Haryana. USDA yield-simulation models indicate lower yield prospects compared to projections in August and early September. In late September, the rice crops in the northern states of Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam entered critical reproductive stages (panicle initiation, ear growth and grain filling) under relatively less than favorable soil moisture profiles due to water deficits. October rainfall across the region minimized yield losses to minimize and raised prospects for the late maturing rice crop.

Recent torrential rains, tropical cyclone Phailin and floods in southeast India have raised concerns regarding the state of rice and overall India agricultural production. The USDA’s preliminary assessment indicates that the weather events posed significant impact and potential crop damage in a few districts in Odisha (Orissa). The most impacted districts are Bhadrak, Jajapur and Kendrapara. The overall decisive impact on rice productivity is still a work in progress.

Eighty-five percent of India’s rice is grown during kharif season (southwest monsoon season, May-September) mainly in Punjab, Haryana and Utter Pradesh. It is estimated that 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated using canals and tube wells. The rest of the rice crop is grown under irrigation during the the rabi season (winter season, November-March). The rabi crop is predominantly grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. The Kharif rice harvest operations are in progress and rabi season rice planting is about to peak.

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