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USDA World Agricultural Production

11 June 2014

USDA World Agricultural Production - 11 June 2014USDA World Agricultural Production - 11 June 2014

USDA World Agricultural Production

Favorable weather during May has increased expectations of a bumper harvest for both wheat and rapeseed. Crops benefited from good soil moisture at planting and minimal winterkill. The mild winter spurred early plant development and crops broke dormancy about a month early in much of the continent. During spring, dryness had become a concern in central Europe until above average rainfall fell during May, improving soil moisture and boosting yield potential. Cooler temperatures have slowed plant development but crops remain about two weeks ahead of normal.

USDA estimates the 2014/15 European Union (EU) wheat crop at 146.3 million tons, up 1.4 million or 0.9 percent from last month, and up 2.9 million or 2.0 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, nearly unchanged from last month but up 0.7 million hectares or 2.8 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.52 tons per hectare (T/Ha), above last month’s 5.47 T/Ha, but below last year’s 5.57 T/Ha. The 5-year average yield is 5.34 T/Ha.

Estimated wheat production in the EU was raised in France (by 0.4 million), Germany (0.3 million), Romania (0.3 million), Bulgaria (0.3 million) and Poland (0.2 million). Spain’s production was lowered 0.1 million, however, due to the early end of its rainy season.

USDA estimates the 2014/15 European Union (EU) rapeseed crop at 22.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2.3 percent from last year, and up 1.5 million from the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 6.85 million hectares, up marginally from last year and up 2.4 percent from the 5- year average. Yield is estimated at 3.21 tons per hectare (T/Ha), above last year’s 3.11 T/Ha and above the 5-year average of 3.06 T/Ha.

Central European countries Poland and Germany account for a combined 0.3 million ton increase over last month as May precipitation occurred during the weight-determining pod-fill period. Poland’s crop is estimated at 2.6 million tons and Germany’s crop is estimated at 5.6 million tons. In the United Kingdom, estimated production is up 0.1 million from last month to 2.5 million tons. Romania has had very favorable precipitation all season, and with satellite-derived vegetative indices supporting a bumper year, estimated production was increased from 0.85 to 0.95 million tons. (For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

Ukraine Corn: Yield Forecast Increased From Last Month Based On Expanded Use of Hybrid Seed

USDA forecasts Ukraine corn production for 2014/15 at 27.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3.9 percent from last month but down 3.9 million or 13 percent from last year’s record output. Harvested area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, virtually unchanged from last year’s record level. Planting is essentially complete and surface moisture conditions are favorable for crop emergence and establishment. Corn yield in Ukraine has increased significantly over the past ten years due in large part to enormous growth in the use of imported hybrid seed. Corn seed imports increased from about 6 thousand tons in 2003 to 46 thousand in 2013, and final imports for 2014 will likely surpass last year’s total by at least 20 percent. At the same time, however, prices for mineral fertilizer and imported agricultural chemicals (including herbicides, insecticides, and pesticides) have increased due to a significant drop in the value of the hyrvna (UAH), and local commodity analysts anticipate a reduction in the application rates of these products. USDA forecasts 2014/15 yield at 5.63 tons per hectare, 3.6 percent above the 5-year average but 12 percent below last year’s near-record level. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

India Cotton: Improved Prospects for 2013/14

USDA has raised the estimate for the 2013/14 India cotton production to a record 30.5 million bales (480-pound bales), up 1 million bales from last month. The increase reflects the latest Government of India’s estimates of production and the latest ginning data. According to USDA’s Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton arrival data continue to support a crop estimate larger than previously estimated, especially in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Harvested area is estimated at 11.7 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 568 kilograms per hectare, close to a ten-year record of 570 achieved in 2007/08. Cotton harvesting operations are almost complete and marketing is in progress.

During the 2013/14 season most cotton-growing regions across the country experienced favorable monsoon rainfall that encouraged cotton plantings. Most regions saw significant improvements including North West, Central India, South Peninsula, and the East. Continued beneficial rainfall encouraged growers to continue planting as indicated by the Government of India’s sowing progress reports. (For more information, please contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202- 720-7339.)

India Millet: Higher Production Estimate for 2013/14 and 2014/15

India's 2013/14 millet production has been revised to 11.52 million tons, up 8.7 percent from last month’s estimate, based primarily on the latest Government of India estimates of production report. Harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares and yield is estimated at a ten-year record of 1.25 ton per hectare. USDA’s projection of 2014/15 India millet has increased to 12 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Harvested area is projected at 9.5 million hectares. Yield is forecast at a record 1.26 tons per hectare. There has been a strong trend of yield increases for India millet. Sowing starts in June and is completed by August.

India’s millet (including bajra, ragi, and small millets) is grown during the kharif (monsoon) season (June-September). In recent years millet production has been facing competition from other summer crops such as cotton, soybean, and pulses, leading to a decline in millet area. The 2013 monsoon rainfall was characterized as normal and most major millet growing regions received favorable rainfall. The favorable rainfall resulted in above-average yields. Millet is mainly produced in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Haryana. During the months of June and July in 2013, cumulative rainfall in these states was very favorable compared to the previous season. (For more information, please contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

India Wheat: Harvest Reports Indicate Record Crop

USDA estimates the 2014/15 wheat production at a record 95.85 million tons, up 1.85 million or 2.0 percent from last month, and 2.34 million or 2.5 percent above last year. Area is estimated at 30.6 million hectares, up 2.0 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.13 tons per hectare, up slightly from last year. This month’s revision is primarily based on the latest Government of India’s estimates of production report. Harvesting is almost complete.

Conditions were good-to-excellent across the growing states. Overall, India benefited by favorable soil moisture conditions during the optimal planting period (October – December), good-to-excellent conditions during grain formation in January to March, and cool temperatures during maturation. Some areas, however, received excessive rain and hailstorm, causing delays in harvesting. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

China Wheat: Record Yield and Production Expected in 2014/15

USDA estimates China’s 2014/15 wheat production at a record 124.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 0.8 percent from last month and up 1.9 percent from last year. The previous record of 123.3 million was set in 1997/98 when planted area was significantly higher. Area is estimated at 24.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up slightly from a year ago. Yield is estimated at 5.12 tons per hectare up 1.7 percent from last year’s record yield. China’s Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) reported that the 2014 winter wheat harvest was about 25 percent complete as of June 2 and progressing rapidly. MOA indicates output was expected to exceed last year’s bumper crop due to slightly higher planted area (up around 60,000 hectares), mostly favorable weather, and effective control of pests and diseases. Record yields and production have been reported by farmers in Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, and Hubei provinces. Better-than-average yields have been reported in Shandong and Hebei provinces; both provinces experienced drought conditions in early spring but received timely rainfall in April and May. Near to below-normal precipitation is forecast for the next two weeks of June in the main wheat-growing provinces. This will benefit harvest activities and limit the threat of lateseason losses from storms or flooding. (For more information, please contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

Turkey Barley: Barley Production Severely Impacted by Drought

USDA forecasts Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production at 4.0 million tons against 7.3 million last year, a 45 percent change. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, up 0.07 million from last year. Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production estimate declined 1.8 million tons from last month due to decline in estimated yields. Yield is forecast at 1.18 metric tons per hectare, down 46 percent from last year and 46 percent below the 5-year average. Dry conditions persisted throughout the season in the GAP, Cukurova and Central Anatolia winter grains regions. In addition, a cold snap in the Central Anatolia region during early April at flowering was severe enough to also cause additional damage. In recent years, a large part of the barley production has expanded into the GAP region. Below normal precipitation for the entire season was measured over the Sanliufra area in the GAP region and the losses in this important barley growing area have contributed to an overall decline in total barley production. (For more information, please contact Bill Baker, PhD, at 202-260-8190.)

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