USDA Rice Outlook
14 May 2012
USDA Rice Outlook - 14 May 2012
Total supplies of U.S. rice in 2012/13 are projected at 239.0 million cwt, a decline of 6
percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2000/01. A big decline in carryin and
a slightly smaller crop are projected to more than offset higher imports. U.S. 2012/13 Rice Crop Forecast at 183.0 Million Cwt
Total supplies of U.S. rice in 2012/13 are projected at 239.0 million cwt, a decline of 6
percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2000/01. A big decline in carryin and
a slightly smaller crop are projected to more than offset higher imports.
The 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 183.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year
earlier and the smallest since 1997/98. Total imports for 2012/13 are projected at 22.0
million cwt, an increase of 7 percent from a year earlier and second only to the 2007/08
record. Beginning stocks in 2012/13 are forecast 34.0 million cwt, 30 percent below a
year earlier.
Total use of U.S. rice in 2012/13 is projected at 212.0 million cwt, down 8 million cwt
from a year earlier. Total exports of U.S. rice in 2012/13 are projected at 89.0 million
cwt, down 8.0 million cwt from the 2011/12 revised estimate and the lowest since
2000/01. Total domestic and residual use of all-rice in 2012/13 is projected at 123.0
million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier. U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2012/13 are
projected at 27.0 million cwt, down 7.0 million cwt from a year earlier and the smallest
since 2003/04.
The 2012/13 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at
$14.50-$15.50 per cwt, up from a revised $13.20-$13.60 per cwt a year earlier. The
combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP is projected at $17.25-$18.25
per cwt, compared with $15.50-$15.90 a year earlier. The higher expected prices for
both classes of rice are largely due to much tighter U.S. supplies.
Global rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 466.4 million tons (milled
basis), an increase of less than 1 percent from a year earlier, a result of expanded area.
Record crops are projected for Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. In contrast, production is projected to
decline in 2012/13 in Argentina, Egypt, Japan, the United States and Uruguay. Global
disappearance for 2012/13 is projected at 465.7 million tons, up almost 2 percent from a
year earlier and the highest on record. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected
at 104.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from a year earlier and largest since 2001/02.
Global calendar year 2013 trade is forecast at 35.2 million tons, an increase of 3
percent from a year earlier and second only to the 2011 record of 35.9 million tons. On
the export side, substantial increases by Burma, Cambodia, China, Pakistan, and
Thailand are projected to more than offset lower shipments from Argentina, India, and the United States. On the import side, most major Asia importers are projected to import
less rice in 2013.
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s parboiled and white rice have risen over the past
month. In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam declined slightly over the past month, as
business has softened slightly. U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices have increased from a
month earlier, largely a response to expectations of a much smaller crop in 2012/13.
Prices for California rice for the domestic and export markets have remained unchanged
over the past month.
Domestic Outlook
U.S. 2012/13 Rice Crop
Forecast at 183.0 Million Cwt
The 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 183.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year
earlier and the smallest since 1997/98. Combined medium- and short-grain accounts
for all of the projected production decline. At 55.5 million cwt, medium- and short-grain
production is 19 percent smaller than a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09. In
contrast, long-grain rice production is projected to increase nearly 10 percent to 127.5
million cwt, still the second smallest long-grain crop since 1987/88.
The smaller total rice crop forecast is based on an intended 5-percent drop in rice
plantings to 2.56 million acres, the smallest since 1987/88. The 2012/13 area estimate
is from the March 2012 Prospective Plantings report. The first survey of actual
plantings of the 2012/13 crop will be conducted in early June and released in the
Acreage report on June 29, 2012. Total harvested area is estimated at 2.53 million
acres and is based on the 2007/08-2011/12 average harvested-to-planted ratio.
By class, U.S. long-grain 2012/13 plantings were indicated at 1.86 million acres, up 4
percent from a year earlier. In 2011/12, severe early season-flooding across the Delta
contributed to a 37-percent decline in U.S. long-grain plantings. In contrast, medium-
and short-grain plantings in 2012/13 were indicated at 697,000 acres, a decline of 22
percent from a year earlier. The South accounted for 80 percent of the indicated
decline in U.S. medium- and short-grain plantings in 2012/13. All reported States
indicated weaker rice plantings in 2012/13 except for Louisiana and Missouri, with
Texas and Mississippi reporting the largest percentage decline. Higher returns for
competing crops—mostly corn and soybeans in the Delta—and severe water
restrictions in Texas account for most of the intended U.S. rice area decline in 2012/13.
The 2012/13 all-rice average yield is forecast at a record 7,225 pounds per acre, an
increase of 2-percent from a year earlier. The long-grain 2012/13 average yield is
forecast at 6,923 pounds per cwt, up 3.5 percent from a year earlier, but still 58 pounds
below the 2007/08 record. The medium- and short-grain yield is forecast at 8,032
pounds per acre, up 3 percent from a year earlier, but still 31 pounds below the 2008/09
record. Yield forecasts by class are based on 1990-2011 trends. The all-rice yield
forecast is simply total production—the sum of long-grain production plus combined
medium- and short-grain production—divided by estimated harvested area.
2012/13 U.S. Rice Crop Progress
Remains Ahead of Normal in the Delta
For the week ending May 6, 77 percent of the U.S. rice crop was reported planted,
ahead of 52 percent a year earlier and the U.S. 5-year average of 68 percent. Planting
was virtually complete across the South, with the Delta’s planting pace sharply ahead of
normal. In Arkansas, 97 percent of the crop was reported planted by May 6, up from just 51 percent last year and a 5-year average of 70 percent. Mississippi’s 2012/13 rice
crop was 98 percent planted by May 6, up from 75 percent last year and the State’s 5-
year average of 78 percent. In Missouri, 98 percent of the 2012/13 rice crop was
reported planted by May 6, well ahead of just 14 percent last year and the State’s
average of 55 percent. These are the earliest planting paces reported for the Delta
States. In 2011/12, severe flooding delayed planting of much of the rice in the Delta
and caused some early-planted rice to be replanted.
On the Gulf Coast, planting progress was near normal. For the week ending May 6, 93
percent of the Louisiana crop was reported planted, nearly even with last year and the
State’s 5-year average. In Texas, 93 percent of the crop was reported planted by May
6, also even with last year and the State’s 5-year average. In contrast to the South, just
10 percent of the California crop was reported planted by May 10, slightly behind last
year and 27 percentage points behind the State’s 5-year average. California
experienced a cool, wet spring that delayed planting. Since the beginning of May,
weather conditions in California have improved for rice plantings.
By May 6, 67 percent of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, up from 42 percent a year
earlier and the U.S. average of 46 percent. Emergence was well ahead of normal in the
Delta and slightly ahead on the Gulf Coast. In Arkansas, 86 percent of the crop had
emerged by May 6, up from just 40 percent last year and the State’s 5-year average of
47 percent. For Mississippi, 89 percent of the crop had emerged by May 6, up from 63
percent last year and the State’s average of 59 percent. In Missouri, 81 percent of the
crop had emerged by May 6, sharply ahead of just 8 percent last year and well ahead of
the State’s 5-year average of 30 percent.
In Texas, 84 percent of the 2012/13 rice crop had emerged by May 6, up from 79
percent last year and the Texas average of 80 percent. For Louisiana, 85 percent of
the crop had emerged by May 6, behind 90 percent last year but slightly ahead of the
State’s 5-year average of 83 percent. None of the California crop had emerged by May
7, unchanged from last year, but behind the State’s 5-year average of 7 percent.
For the week ending May 6, 66 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good or excellent
condition, up 1 percentage point from a week earlier. Crop conditions were the highest
on the Gulf Coast and lowest in the upper Delta States of Arkansas and Missouri. In
Arkansas, 61 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition for the week
ending May 6, up from 58 percent a week earlier. Additionally, 12 percent of the
Arkansas crop was rated in very poor or poor condition, up from 11 percent a week
earlier. The State has experienced extremely dry weather this spring. The conditions in
nearby Missouri are similar. For the week ending May 6, 59 percent of Missouri’s crop
was rated in good or excellent condition, up 3 percentage points from a week earlier.
An additional 7 percent of Missouri’s crop was rated in poor condition.
In Louisiana, 74 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition,
unchanged from last week. For Texas, 78 percent of the crop was rated in good or
excellent condition, down 2 percentage points from a week earlier, with 5 percent of the crop reported in poor condition. Texas has experienced severe drought in recent years.
In Mississippi, 77 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, up 1
percentage point from last week. Crop conditions for California have not yet been
reported for 2012/13.
U.S. 2012/13 Total Supplies
Projected To Drop to 239.0 Million Cwt
Total supplies of rice in 2012/13 are projected at 239.0 million cwt, a decline of 6
percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2000/01. In 2012/13, a big decline in
carryin and a slightly smaller crop are projected to more than offset higher imports. By
class, long-grain supplies are projected at 166.6 million cwt, down 2 percent from a year
earlier and smallest since 2000/01. Medium- and short-grain supplies are forecast at
69.7 million cwt, a drop of 14 percent from the earlier record.
Beginning stocks in 2012/13 are forecast at 34.0 million cwt, 30 percent below a year
earlier. The 2012/13 long-grain carryin is forecast at 20.1 million cwt, 44 percent
smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin is forecast at 11.2
million cwt, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Stocks of brokens are not classified by
class.
The 2012/13 U.S. rice crop is forecast to be down 2.0 million cwt from a year earlier,
with a 13.1-million cwt drop in medium- and short-grain production more than offsetting
an 11.1-million cwt increase in long-grain production.
Total imports for 2012/13 are projected at 22.0 million cwt, an increase of 7 percent
from a year earlier and second only to the 2007/08 record. Some of the expected
increase is based on much tighter supplies of U.S. rice in 2012/13. Long-grain imports
are projected at a record 19.0 million cwt, an increase of almost 6 percent from a year
earlier. Thailand supplies the bulk of U.S. long-grain imports, mainly shipping its
premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for
most of the remaining U.S. long-grain imports. Medium- and short-grain imports are
projected at 3.0 million cwt for 2012/13, an increase of 20 percent from a year earlier.
Specialty rice from Thailand that is classified as medium- and short-grain accounts for
the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain imports. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for
most of the remainder.
U.S. Rice Exports in 2012/13 Projected To
Decline 8 Percent to 89 Million Cwt
Total use of U.S. rice in 2012/13 is projected at 212.0 million cwt, down 8 million cwt
from a year earlier, with exports accounting for all of the projected decline in total use.
By class, long-grain total use is projected at 150.0 million cwt, unchanged from a year earlier. In contrast, medium/short-grain total use is forecast to decline 8.0 million cwt to
62.0 million.
Total domestic and residual use of all-rice in 2012/13 is projected at 123.0 million cwt,
unchanged from a year earlier. The lack of any projected increase in total domestic and
residual use is partly based on expected continued decline in rice use by brewers.
There are sharp differences in changes in domestic use by class. For long-grain,
domestic and residual use is projected to increase 3.0 million cwt to 91.0 million cwt. In
contrast, medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 32.0 million
cwt, down 3.0 million from a year earlier, with the decline partly due to much higher
expected prices for medium- and short-grain rice.
Total exports of U.S. rice in 2012/13 are projected at 89.0 million cwt, down 8.0 million
cwt from the 2011/12 revised estimate and the lowest since 2000/01. The substantial
decline is based on smaller U.S. supplies and a much wider price difference between
U.S. rice and major Asian competitors. By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected
to drop 3.0 million cwt to 32.0 million, the lowest since 2008/09. Latin America—the
largest market for U.S. rough-rice—is expected to account for much of the decline.
Milled rice exports (combined milled and brown rice exports converted to a rough-basis)
are projected at 57 million cwt, a 5-million cwt drop from a year earlier and the lowest
since 1975/76.
By class, long-grain exports are projected at 59.0 million cwt, a 3.0-million drop from
2011/12 and the lowest since 1993/94. Latin America, the largest market for U.S. longgrain rice, is expected to account for much of the decline. Medium- and short-grain
exports are projected at 30.0 million cwt, a decline of 5.0 million from the year-earlier
near-record. Some of the projected decline is based on weaker shipments to Northeast
Asia due to the timing of the region’s annual WTO imports, with U.S. shipments to the
region abnormally high in 2011/12.
U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2012/13 are projected at 27.0 million cwt, down 7.0
million cwt from a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The stocks-to-use ratio
is calculated at 12.7 percent, down from 15.4 percent in 2011/12. By class, the 2012/13
U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 16.6 million cwt, down 3.5 million cwt from last
year and the smallest since 2003/04. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at
11.0 percent, down from 13.4 percent in 2011/12 and the smallest since 2003/04. The
medium/short-grain carryout is projected at 7.7 million cwt, down 3.5 million cwt from a
year earlier and the smallest since 1998/99. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio
is calculated at 12.5 percent, down from 16.0 percent in 2011/12 and the lowest since at
least 1982/83 when USDA first began reporting supply and use estimates by class.
U.S. 2011/12 Export Forecast
Raised to 97.0 Million Cwt
There were no revisions to the supply side of the 2011/12 balance sheet. On the use
side, total exports were raised 5.0 million cwt to 97.0 million cwt, still 13 percent below a
year earlier. The substantial revision is largely due to stronger than expected shipments
and sales through late April and expectations regarding shipments the remainder of the
market year. Rough-rice exports were raised 3.0 million cwt to 35.0 million cwt, with
South and Central America accounting for much of the upward revision. Milled rice
exports were raised 2.0 million cwt to 62.0 million cwt, with Northeast Asia accounting
for much of the upward revision—a result of the timing of the region’s annual WTO
imports.
Long-grain exports were raised 4.0 million cwt to 62.0 million cwt. Sales have been
especially strong over the past month to South America, Central America, and Mexico.
Medium- and short-grain exports were raised 1.0 million cwt to a near-record 35.0
million cwt. Strong sales to Middle Eastern markets and larger than normal buying from
Northeast Asia are behind the upward revision.
Total domestic and residual use forecast remains unchanged at 123.0 million cwt. The
stronger export forecasts lowered the 2011/12 export forecast 5.0 million cwt to 34.0
million cwt. By class, long-grain stocks were lowered 4.0 million cwt to 20.1 million cwt
and medium- and short-grain endings were raised 1.0 million cwt to 11.2 million cwt.
U.S. Rough-Rice Prices
Projected To Be Higher in 2012/13
The 2012/13 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at
$14.50-$15.50 per cwt, up from a revised $13.20-$13.60 per cwt a year earlier. The
mid-point of the 2012/13 long-grain SAFP would be the highest on record. The 2011/12
SAFP projection was raised 10 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s
forecast based on reported cash prices through March and expectations regarding
prices the remainder of the market year.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP is projected at $17.25-
$18.25 per cwt, compared with $15.50-$15.90 a year earlier. Despite the expected
increase, the medium- and short-grain 2012/13 SAFP is well below the 2008/09 record.
The higher expected prices for both classes of rice are largely due to much tighter U.S.
supplies.
In late April, NASS reported a mid-April U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $13.30 per
cwt, up 30 cents from the revised March estimate. The March price was lowered 20
cents from the mid-month estimate to $13.00. For combined medium- and short-grain
rice, the mid-April NASS price was reported at $15.90 per cwt, up 90 cents from the revised March price. The March medium- and short-grain rough-rice cash price estimated was lowered $1.00 to $15.00 per cwt.
International Rice Market
Global Rice Production Projected
To Reach Another Record in 2012/13
Global rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 466.4 million tons (milled
basis), an increase of less than 1 percent from a year earlier. The bumper crop is the
result of expanded area. At 159.8 million hectares, global rice area is up 0.9 million
hectares from a year earlier and the highest on record. Southeast Asia and SubSaharan Africa account for most of the expansion in global rice area in 2012/13. The average yield of 4.35 tons per hectare is unchanged from the year-earlier record.
Among the Asian global rice exporters, Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam are
projected to harvest record crops in 2013/12, while production is expected to be a nearrecord in India and Pakistan in 2012/13. Of the top five exporters—which typically
account for more than 80 percent of global shipments—only the United States is
expected to harvest a small crop in 2012/13. Thus, global exportable supplies are
expected to be plentiful.
China, the world’s largest rice-producing country, is projected to produce a record 141.0
million tons of rice in 2012/13, up fractionally from a year earlier, a result of expanded
area. At 30.15 million hectares, China’s rice area is the highest since 1999/2000.
India’s production is projected at a near-record 102.5 million cwt, down 1 percent from a
year earlier, with both area and yield forecast to be slightly smaller in 2012/13. In
nearby Pakistan, production is projected at a near-record 6.8 million tons, up almost 5
percent from a year earlier, a result of both area expansion and a higher yield.
Vietnam is projected to harvest a record 26.5-million ton crop in 2012/13, fractionally
above a year earlier, a result of a slightly higher yield. Thailand is projected to harvest a
record 21.05 million tons of rice, up 3 percent from a year earlier, a result of both record
area and a record yield. For the United States, production is expected to decline 1
percent to 5.83 million tons, the result of a big drop in area. The crop (on a milled basis)
is the smallest since 1988/99.
The remaining Asian net-exporting countries are projected to harvest larger crops in
2012/13. Burma’s production is projected at 11.0 million tons, nearly 2 percent above a
year earlier, a result of a record yield. Burma’s area remains below levels reached prior
to 2011/12 largely due to more favorable returns from alternative crops. Cambodia’s
record production is forecast at a record 4.5 million tons, up 5 percent from a year
earlier, mostly due to expanded area. Please note that this month USDA revised
Cambodia’s production downward from 2005/06-2011/12 to more accurately reflect
trade, use, and stocks estimates. The current production estimates for Cambodia no
longer match official government estimates. USDA also revised Laos’ production
estimates—from 1999/2000-2011/12—to better account for use and ending stocks
estimates.
Among the non-Asian exporters, both Brazil and Australia are projected to harvest
larger crops in 2012/13. Brazil’s production is projected to increase almost 2 percent to
11.0 million tons, mostly due to expanded area. In 2011/12, adverse weather was
partially responsible for a 13-percent area decline in Brazil. Australia is projected to
produce 720,000 tons of rice in 2012/13, almost 5 percent above a year earlier and the
largest crop since 2001/02. The larger crop is the result of expanded area.
In contrast, Argentina is projected to harvest 910,000 tons of rice in 2012/13, down
nearly 5 percent from a year earlier, a result of smaller area. In nearby Uruguay,
production is projected to drop 5 percent to 896,000 tons, also due to reduced area.
For both Southern Cone exporters, higher returns for competing crops account for the
expected area decline. Finally, Egypt is projected to harvest 3.8 million tons of rice in
2012/13, a drop of nearly 11 percent from a year earlier, also due to an area decline.
The Government of Egypt wants to limit rice area to conserve water.
The top Asian rice importers are projected to harvest record crops in 2012/13.
Indonesia—the third largest rice producing country—is projected to harvest 36.9 million
tons of rice in 2012/13, a result of both expanded area and a higher yield. Bangladesh’s
production on 34.1 million tons of rice is unchanged from the year earlier record, with
both area and yield the highest on record. The Philippines are projected to increase
production 1.5 percent to 10.8 million tons, a result of record plantings. Malaysia’s
production of 1.7 million tons is up fractionally from a year earlier due to a small area
expansion.
Among major non-Asian importers, Nigeria is projected to produce a record 2.85 million
tons of rice, more than 5 percent above a year earlier, largely due to expanded area.
Iran is projected to produce 1.55 million tons of rice in 2012/13, unchanged from a year
earlier, but 12 percent below the 2007/08 record. Iraq’s production is projected to
remain at just 117,000 tons, well below levels achieved before 1990/91. Iraq imports
most of its import needs. Production in the EU-27 is projected to decline more than 3
percent to 1.9 million tons, a result of smaller area. Like Brazil, China, and the United
States the EU-27 is both an exporter and importer of rice.
Global production for 2011/12 is projected at 463.3 million tons, down 0.6 million from
last month’s forecast but still 3 percent above a year earlier and the largest to date.
The largest decrease was for Cambodia, whose production estimate was lowered 1.1
million tons to 4.3 million based on a revised production series for 2005/06-2011/12.
Laos’ 2011/12 production estimate was lowered 500,000 tons to 1.44 million tons, also
based on a revised production series, going back to 1999/2000. The largest upward
revision was for India whose crop was revised up 650,000 tons to a record 103.4 million
tons based on Ministry of Agriculture data indicating a record yield. In addition, Sri
Lanka’s 2011/12 production was raised 0.4 million tons to a record 3.3 tons based on a
larger area estimate provided by the Ministry of Agriculture.
In addition to these revisions for producers in Asia, this month USDA made several
2011/12 production revisions in Sub-Saharan Africa, largely based on information provided by U.S. Agricultural Counselors in various Posts in the region. On balance,
the upward revisions were nearly offset by reductions. The largest 2011/12 increases
were made for Tanzania and Sierra Leone. The largest reductions were made for Mali
and Senegal.
Global disappearance for 2012/13 is projected at 465.7 million tons, up almost 2 percent
from a year earlier and the highest on record. Bangladesh, Burma, China, India,
Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam account for most of the expected increase in
domestic use. Disappearance is expected to continue to decline in Japan and is
projected nearly stable in South Korea and the United States. By region, East Asia,
South Asia, and Southeast Asia account for the bulk of the expected increase in
disappearance in 2012/13.
Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 104.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons
from a year earlier and largest since 2001/02. This is the sixth consecutive year of
rising global stocks. Thailand’s stocks are projected to increase 29 percent to a record
12.1 million tons, largely due to government policy. Stocks are projected to be slightly
higher in 2012/13 in China and India, but to decline in Bangladesh. The global stocksto-use ratio for 2012/13 is calculated at 22.5 percent, virtually unchanged from a year
earlier.
Global Rice Trade Projected
To Increase to 35.2 Million Tons in 2013
Global calendar year 2013 trade is forecast at 35.2 million tons, an increase of 3
percent from a year earlier and second only to the 2011 record of 35.9 million tons. On
the export side, substantial increases by Burma, Cambodia, China, Pakistan, and
Thailand are projected to more than offset lower shipments from Argentina, India, and
the United States.
In 2013, Thailand is projected to return as the largest exporter, shipping 8.0 million tons,
up 23 percent from a year earlier, but still well below the 2011 record of 10.65 million
tons. Thailand’s current policy makes its exports uncompetitive in many markets,
leading to a substantial accumulation of government-held stocks. Vietnam’s exports are
forecast to remain unchanged from this year’s record of 7.0 million tons, as Vietnam has
picked up some of Thailand’s markets. India is projected to export 6.0 million tons of
rice in 2013, down from a record 7.0 million in 2012. Despite a record 2011/12 crop and
large carryout, food security concerns limit India’s exports.
Pakistan is projected to export a record 4.0 million tons in 2013, up almost 7 percent
from a year earlier, a result of large supplies, competitive prices, and expanded global
trade. The United States is projected to export 3.0 million tons of rice in 2013, down 9
percent from a year earlier. The substantial decline is based on much smaller supplies
and a wider price difference over major Asian competitors. These are the smallest U.S. exports (converted to a milled basis) since 2001. These five countries account for about
80 percent of global rice trade and are the largest shippers by a substantial margin.
Among the mid-level exporters, Cambodia is projected to export a record 950,000 tons
of rice in 2013, up 19 percent from the year-earlier revised level. The increase is
primarily due to large supplies and expanded global trade. Burma is projected to boost
exports 25 percent to 750,000 tons, still below 2011 trade and well below record levels
shipped prior to World War II.
Outside Asia, Egypt’s exports are projected to be unchanged from this year’s 600,000
tons, as area restrictions continue to prevent Egypt’s export from returning to the record
levels achieved prior to 2009. In South America, Brazil is projected to export 900,000
tons of rice in 2013, up 9 percent from a year earlier, making Brazil a net exporter in
2013. The increase is based on larger supplies. In contrast, Argentina is projected to
reduce exports 14 percent to 560,000 tons, mostly due to smaller supplies. Despite a
smaller crop, Uruguay’s 2013 exports are projected to be unchanged from this year’s
850,000 tons. Both Argentina and Uruguay export the bulk of their rice crop. Australia’s
exports are projected to increase 11 percent to 500,000 tons in 2013, the highest since
2001 and the result of larger supplies.
On the import side, most major Asia importers are projected to import less rice in 2013.
Indonesia is projected to import 1.44 million tons of rice, down 28 percent from a year
earlier, the result of large supplies. Malaysia is projected to import 1.05 million tons of
rice in 2013, down 3 percent from a year earlier, the result of a record crop.
Bangladesh’s imports are projected to decline almost 8 percent to 600,000 tons, also
due to a record crop. Imports by the Philippines are projected at 1.5 million tons,
unchanged from this year, largely due to a larger crop.
Outside Asia, Nigeria’s imports are forecast at 2.25 million tons, down 8 percent from a
year earlier, a result of a record crop. In contrast, South Africa’s imports are projected
to increase 33 percent to a record 1.0 million tons, a result of strong consumption
growth. South Africa does not produce rice. In the Middle East, Iran is projected to
import a near-record 1.6 million tons of rice in 2013, up 3 percent from a year earlier,
despite a larger crop. Iraq’s imports are projected to be unchanged from this year’s
near-record 1.2 million tons. Saudi Arabia is projected to import 1.18 million tons of rice
in 2013, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Like South Africa, Saudi Arabia does not
grow rice.
Thailand’s Trading Prices Increase
On Stronger Demand
Prices for most grades of Thailand’s parboiled and white rice have risen over the past
month due to inquiries from buyers for large shipments to Nigeria before July when
import tariffs rise. Exportable supplies are also tight due to large government
purchases. Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $603 per ton for the week ending May 8,
up $49 from the week ending April 10. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were
quoted at $613 per ton for the week ending May 8, up $31 from the week ending April
10. These are the highest prices since early December.
Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice—a specialty rice—were quoted at $618
per ton for the week ending May 8, up $31 from the week ending April 10. Prices for
Thailand’s brokens have increased over the past month as well. For the week ending
May 8, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $555 per
ton, up $30 from the week ending April 10. In contrast, price quotes for Thailand’s
premium jasmine rice were quoted at $1,026 per ton for the week ending May 8, down
$37 from April 10. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price
Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok.
In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam declined slightly over the past month, as
business has softened slightly. For the week ending May 8, prices for Vietnam’s 5-
percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $435 per ton—
down $5 per ton from the week ending April 10. Thailand’s price quotes for 5 percent
brokens are currently $149 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-waterpolished milled rice, compared with a difference of $103 last month.
U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices have increased from a month earlier, largely a
response to expectations of a much smaller crop in 2012/13 based on the March 30
intended plantings estimates. For the week ending May 1, prices for high-quality
Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S.
Gulf port) were quoted at $524 per ton, up $22 from April 10. U.S. long-grain milled-rice
traders faces strong price competition in the global market. U.S. long-grain rough-rice
(bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) was quoted at $335 per ton for the week ending May 1,
up $20 from the week ending April 1. In contrast to U.S. milled exports, sales of longgrain rough-rice have been strong in recent weeks, primarily to Latin America.
Prices for California rice for the domestic and export markets have remained unchanged
over the past month. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (sacked) for
domestic sales remains quoted at $772 per ton for the week ending May 1. Export
prices (for 30-kg bags, fob vessel) for California milled rice were quoted at $685 per ton
for the week ending May 1, also unchanged from the week ending April 10. Exports of
California rice have been at near-record pace this year, despite greater competition
from Australia and Egypt in several medium- and short-grain markets. Price quotes for
Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice prices, and U.S. rough-rice export
prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.
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