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USDA Rice Outlook

15 January 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - January 2015USDA Rice Outlook - January 2015

USDA Rice Outlook

A slightly lower 2014/15 U.S. medium- and short-grain crop estimate was nearly offset by a slightly higher estimate for long-grain production, with total rice production now estimated at 221.0 million cwt, 16 percent above a year earlier. Imports for 2014/15 were raised 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million cwt. These revisions raised the U.S. total supply forecast by almost 1.0 million cwt to 275.9 million cwt.

The only revision on the 2014/15 use side was a 1.0-million cwt switch in exports to longgrain from combined medium- and short-grain, with total U.S. exports still projected at 103.0 million cwt. Domestic and residual use remains forecast at a near-record 131.0 million cwt. The higher total supply forecast resulted in a 1.0-million cwt increase in the August 1, 2015, ending stocks forecast to 40.9 million cwt, 28 percent larger than a year earlier. Data from the January Rice Stocks indicated December 1 rice stocks of 165.9 million cwt, up 16 percent from a year earlier.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range was lowered 50 cents on both ends to $18.00-$19.00 per cwt, with the mid-point identical to the 2013/14 SAFP of $18.50 per cwt. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. longgrain rice was lowered 30 cents on both ends to $11.70-$12.70 per cwt, well below the 2013/14 SAFP of $15.40 per cwt.

The 2014/15 global production forecast was raised 0.2 million tons to 475.5 million tons, with crop projections raised for Guyana and Paraguay but lowered for Brazil. Global use— projected at a record 483.3 million tons—is expected to exceed production by almost 8 million tons, pulling ending stocks down 7 percent to 99.0 million tons. Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 42.6 million tons, up 0.64 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from the year-earlier record. Export forecasts for 2015 were raised for Burma, Guyana, Paraguay, and Thailand. Import forecasts for 2015 were raised for China, Sri Lanka, and Syria.

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