USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed
22 January 2015
USDA GAIN: Mexico Grain and Feed Update January 2015
Favorable weather conditions throughout Mexico’s crop producing regions have resulted in higher
production expectations in marketing year (MY) 2014/15 for corn and rice. On the other hand, less area
was planted to sorghum than initially expected in several Mexican states during the 2014 spring/summer
crop cycle. The Post/New MY 2014/15 (January/December) dry beans production estimated has been
revised slightly downward to 1.15 MMT based on updated information from official and private
sources. No changes reported for wheat since last report (GAIN Report MX4073).
Corn
Production
Post’s total corn production estimate for MY 2014/15 (October to September) has been revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official estimate to 23.2 million metric tons (MMT), due to more complete data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). Corn output was increased due to higher than expected harvested area and favorable weather conditions. Official sources stated that the rainy season was regular and timely. These same sources estimated that for the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle, which is almost complete, production could reach 18 MMT. At the same time, the expectation for the current 2013/14 fall/winter season remains optimistic. Official sources expect that production will reach approximately 5.2 MMT, similar to the level reached a year ago. The Post/New total production estimate for the MY 2013/14 has been adjusted slightly downward based on SAGARPA final information.
Consumption
The total corn consumption estimate for MY 2014/15 has been revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official estimate based on information obtained from SAGARPA and industry contacts. These contacts stated that the low domestic corn prices along with lower than expected domestic sorghum production (see Sorghum Production section) provoked an increase for feed and residual demand.
Stocks
The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2014/15 is slightly higher than the USDA/Official estimate (2.94 MMT) as a result of higher than previously estimated domestic production. Also, the Post/New ending stocks for MY 2013/14 has been revised downward to 2.69 MMT, from USDA/Official estimate, due to lower domestic production than previously forecast.
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