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IGC Grain Market Report

26 January 2015

IGC Grain Market Report - January 2015IGC Grain Market Report - January 2015

International Grain Council Grain Market Report


The forecast of world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2014/15 is boosted by 12m t from the last report, to a record 2,002m t. Most of the change is for maize (corn), including a reassessment of historical output in Argentina, but there are also notable upward revisions for the EU (wheat, maize) and Canada (wheat), while the maize harvest in the US is adjusted downward. Although global demand is also raised, the end-2014/15 carryover is lifted by 3m t, to 432m, a gain of 30m y/y (year-on-year) and the most since the mid-1980s.

At 474m t, world rice output in 2014/15 is little changed from November and last year. The projection for global carryovers is maintained at 102m t, but the forecast for the major exporters is cut by 1m, to 32m, with a 16% y/y drop reflecting heavy falls in India and Thailand. World trade in 2015 is revised higher, but would still be slightly short of last year’s record on smaller deliveries to Far East Asia.

Reflecting small increases for key producers, global soyabean production in 2014/15 is up by 4m t from before, to a record 312m, a rise of 10% y/y. With only part of the gain absorbed by higher use, end-season inventories are placed about 2m t above the previous figure, at a peak of 42m, including nearly 25m in the major exporters. Mainly due to an upgrade for China, world trade is lifted slightly, to 116m t, some 5% larger y/y.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by 6% since the November GMR. Amid increasing global crop prospects, there was a particularly steep drop for soyabeans. Concerns about Black Sea export curbs contributed to temporary strength for wheat, but values retreated again as availabilities elsewhere were considered adequate. Maize was up for most of the period, buoyed by hopes for stronger buying by China, but the focus returned to heavy world supplies more recently, contributing to an overall decline in prices.

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