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USDA Wheat Outlook

15 February 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook - February 2015USDA Wheat Outlook - February 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook

Ending Stocks Up Slightly With Trade Changes

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 5 million bushels higher as reduced exports more than offset an import reduction. Projected imports are lowered 20 million bushels to 160 million on pace to date.

Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 900 million due to increased competition from the European Union (EU) and the recent strengthening of the dollar (which makes U.S. exports less competitive). Ending stocks are increased to 692 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end to $5.85 to $6.15 per bushel. The reduction reflects prices received to date as well as a loss of competitiveness for U.S. wheat. Higher foreign production projected for 2014/15 and larger beginning stocks boost world wheat supplies this month. The increase in world wheat supplies is larger than the increase in use, raising projected world ending stocks.

EU wheat exports continue to increase (helped by euro devaluation), while Australian exports are down. U.S. wheat export prospects are also slightly down.

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