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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

18 February 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - February 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - February 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

U.S. and Mexico Sugar Projections Unchanged for February 2015

For this month, no changes were made to the 2014/15 U.S. sugar supply and use balance of January. Total production for the year remains at 8.610 million short tons, raw value (STRV), with beet sugar accounting for 4.870 million STRV and cane sugar accounting for 3.740 million STRV. Total imports for the year are forecast to be 3.504 million STRV. Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports are projected to be 1.492 million STRV.

Imports from Mexico are projected to be 1.602 million STRV, based on the calculation of U.S. Needs as defined by the agreement to suspend the countervailing duty investigation signed by the Department of Commerce and the Government of Mexico in December 2014. Total supplies remain unchanged from the previous month’s estimate at 13.910 million STRV.

Projected deliveries for domestic use remain at 11.994 million STRV. Deliveries for food and beverage use from domestic refineries are up year-over-year through the first quarter of FY2015, while sugar imports from nonreporting entities for direct consumption are down considerably over the same period. Ending stocks for the current year are projected to be 1.666 million STRV, which would result in a supply-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent.

The Mexican sugar balance table for 2014/15 also remains unchanged from the January estimates for 2014/15. Production forecasts for the year remain at 6.151 million metric tons, actual value (MT), a slight increase from 2013/14 production. With no changes in imports from January’s estimate, total supply for 2014/15 is expected to be 7.174 million MT. Domestic consumption for the year is projected to be 4.200 million MT, unchanged from the previous month’s projection and 2.5 percent above 2013/14 totals.

Total exports are forecast to be 1.696 million MT, with 1.371 million MT projected to be shipped to the United States. Like the corresponding figure on the U.S. balance sheet, projected exports to the United States are based on the current calculation of U.S. Needs as prescribed in the suspension agreement signed in December 2014. Ending stocks are residually calculated to be 955,000 MT for the year, which implies a 22.7 stocks-to-domestic-consumption ratio.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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