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IGC Grain Market Report

26 March 2015

IGC Grain Market Report - 26 March 2015IGC Grain Market Report - 26 March 2015

International Grain Council Grain Market Report

The estimate of world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2014/15 is 5m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at 2,000m, a marginal fall y/y (year-on-year). However, a jump in the global carryover is still expected, to a 15-year high of 429m t.

Following an increase for barley, world grains trade is expected to be a record 309m t.

The Council’s initial projections for supply and demand in 2015/16 point to a 3 per cent decline in the world harvest, to 1,937m t, including a sharp fall for maize (corn). Given the drop in supply, feed use of grains may not be as high y/y, but growth in human consumption is seen matching the long-term trend.

A retreat in stocks is projected, led by the major exporters, where maize inventories are seen dropping by almost one-quarter.

Grains trade is projected to contract a little, with reductions for wheat and barley, but increases for maize and sorghum.

World rice output in 2014/15 is placed fractionally higher than before, at 475m t, only slightly lower y/y. The increase from February is absorbed through upward adjustments to use and stocks.

Nevertheless, world carryovers are still seen at a four year low of around 101m t, led by a steep contraction in leading exporters.

Forecast world trade in 2015 (Jan/Dec) is cut marginally, to some 42m t, only three per cent below last year’s high.

Due to slight adjustments for South America, forecast 2014/15 world soyabean output is reduced to 314m t, but is still up by 10 per cent y/y and a record. With uptake seen near unchanged m/m, end-season carryovers are lowered slightly, to 44m t.

However, this equates to a 47 per cent y/y rise, to a new high, mostly tied to accumulation in Argentina and the US.

Although crush margins have recently improved, growth in China’s imports is expected to be slower than in earlier years, and trade is seen expanding by just five per cent.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by three per cent since the last grain market report. Small gains for wheat and maize were outweighed by falls for soyabeans, barley and rice.

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