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USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade

10 April 2015

USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - April 2015USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - April 2015

USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade Reports

Driven by growth in India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, yarn spinning in South and Southeast Asia surpassed Chinese yarn spinning in 2011/12, and has been rising ever since. Meanwhile, yarn spinning in the rest of the world has remained roughly flat. This historic rise in South and Southeast Asian yarn spinning is in part due to the confluence of high internal prices for cotton in China, and China’s uniquely dominant position in yarn spinning over the last decade. From 1960 to 2000, China reliably led global consumption, at around 20 to 25 percent of the world total. From 2000 to 2010, however, it rose to 40 percent, even as global consumption grew. With so much consumption in one country, any policy change in China was likely to have an outsized impact.

Under its stock accumulation and price support policies over the last several years, Chinese internal cotton prices were well above global averages. This pushed yarn spinning into other nearby markets. With rising labor costs, lower crop subsidies, and the imposition of tighter import controls in China over the last year, yarn spinning is expected to continue expanding rapidly in South and Southeast Asia. China’s share of global consumption is expected to remain low relative to recent years. On May 12, USDA will release its first global, country-level forecasts.

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