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USDA Grains: World Markets and Trade

10 April 2015

USDA Grains: World Markets and Trade - April 2015USDA Grains: World Markets and Trade - April 2015

USDA Grains: World Markets and Trade Reports

U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 are forecast down 24 percent from last year and are expected to be the lowest in 12 years. The United States had traditionally been the largest wheat exporter but lost that position to the EU last year. EU exports are forecast at a record high again in 2014/15, continuing to displace the United States as the largest exporter. The EU has abundant supplies, freight and logistical advantages to North Africa and the Middle East, and competitive prices. France has an unusually large supply of feed-quality wheat, which is being exported to Southeast Asian markets.

Further exacerbating the U.S. decline, Canada’s exports are forecast to equal U.S. exports for the first time ever at 24 million tons. Canada’s exports are the largest in over 20 years, with this year’s increase primarily driven by large shipments of durum, which remain in tight supply globally.

Favorable growing conditions in the EU, combined with large carry-in, imply another year of exportable surplus. However, policy uncertainty in Argentina and Russia could create future export opportunities for the United States. On May 12, USDA will release its first global, country-level forecasts for 2015/16.

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