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USDA Wheat Outlook

14 April 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook - 14 April 2015USDA Wheat Outlook - 14 April 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook

U.S. Ending Stocks Down Slightly With Nearly Offsetting Supply and Use Changes

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 7 million bushels lower with reduced imports and higher domestic use mostly offset by lower exports. Imports are projected 15 million bushels lower (mostly durum) based on available shipment data. Feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels higher on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by March 1 stocks and revisions to December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The all wheat export projection is lowered 20 million bushels, based on continued strong competition in global markets. This would be the lowest export total since 2009/10. The projected season-average farm price range for all wheat is raised 10 cents on the low end to $6.00 to $6.10 per bushel.

The United States is continuing to lose market share in world wheat trade, reaching 15 percent, the lowest level ever in USDA’s database. The European Union is breaking its own record in wheat exports, and is the largest world wheat exporter for the second year in a row. Canadian wheat exports are projected higher, reaching the projected U.S. export level for the first time on record. Russian exports are projected higher, helped by the major depreciation of the ruble, despite exports being hurt by the export tax imposed by the government in February. World wheat production is revised upward—feed use is trimmed, but food use increased, while ending stock prospects are reduced slightly. 

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