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USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

14 April 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - 14 April 2015USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - 14 April 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

Global Cotton Stocks a Record in 2014/15

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2014/15 indicate that world ending stocks are forecast to reach a record 110 million bales, 8 percent (8.3 million bales) above 2013/14. Cotton stocks have risen significantly during the last several seasons as relatively high cotton prices encouraged global production while constraining consumption. The latest 2014/15 ending stocks forecast shows that stocks will have more than doubled since 2010/11.

The effects of policies in China are the major factors in the recent global stocks buildup. For 2014/15, ending stocks in China are projected at a record 65.1 million bales, the fourth consecutive season of rising stocks (fig. 1). In addition, 2014/15 stock increases are noted for the United States as well as the rest of the world combined. China is expected to hold about 60 percent of global stocks at the end of this season, slightly below 2013/14. While policy changes in China are expected to reduce these stocks in the coming seasons, much uncertainty remains surrounding the timing and market impact of their disposal.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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