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USDA Rice Outlook

14 April 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - 14 April 2015USDA Rice Outlook - 14 April 2015

USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2015/16 Rice Plantings Indicated at 2.92 Million Acres

The March 2015 Prospective Plantings report indicated 2015/16 U.S. rice area at 2.92 million acres, down just 24,000 acres from a year earlier. Intended plantings of both longgrain and medium- and short-grain rice were indicated slightly below 2014/15 plantings. Growers indicated smaller plantings in 2015/16 in Arkansas and California. The pace of planting the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop is even with a year earlier but behind the U.S. 5-year average, mainly due to wet conditions in the Delta and Texas.

The only 2014/15 U.S. supply-side revision this month was a 0.5-million cwt increase in the U.S. import forecast to 23.5 million cwt. On the use side, the domestic and residual use forecast was lowered 2.0 million cwt to 129.0 million cwt, while the 2014/15 export forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 105 million cwt. These revisions resulted in a 1.5- million cwt increase in the ending stocks forecast to 42.4 million cwt, up 33 percent from a year earlier.

The midpoint of the 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice was lowered 20 cents to $12.30 per cwt. The midpoint of the combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range was raised 10 cents to $18.60 per cwt. The midpoint of the 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was lowered 10 cents $14.20 per cwt.

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 474.6 million tons (milled basis), down 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 2.3 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop. Production forecasts were lowered for Colombia, Guinea, Indonesia, and Vietnam, but raised for Pakistan and Mali. Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.0 million tons, exceeding production by 8.4 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected at 98.6 million tons, 8 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2009/10.

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a near-record 42.3 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons below the year-earlier record. Export forecasts were lowered for Egypt and Japan, but raised for the United States.

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