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IGC Grain Market Report

24 April 2015

IGC Grain Market Report - 24 April 2015IGC Grain Market Report - 24 April 2015

International Grain Council Grain Market Report

At 1,947m t, the projection for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2015/16 is 10m higher m/m (monthon-month), but still 3% lower than the previous season’s record. Most of the y/y (year-on-year) decline in output is for maize (corn); while this is raised by 11m t m/m, it is still seen dropping by some 43m, to 951m, led by a contraction in the US. Owing to reduced prospects in Argentina, China and India, production of wheat is trimmed by 4m t m/m, to 705m, down by 2% y/y.

The projection for global consumption is boosted by 10m t, to 1,970m, with much of the revision in the feed sector. The forecast for carryover stocks is also lifted, by 9m t, to 415m, a 23m retreat y/y but still about 9% above the five-year average. Reflecting increases for wheat, maize and sorghum, world grains trade is 2m t higher m/m, at 306m, an only modest y/y decline.

The 2014/15 global rice outturn is seen fractionally lower m/m, at 474m t, a negligible fall from the previous year’s record. With a reduced figure for carry-ins leading to tighter supplies, global end-season stocks are cut slightly, to 100m t, the y/y drop of 8% mostly in the major exporters. Forecast trade in 2015 is down marginally m/m, to 41m t, a decline of 4% from the 2014 peak owing to reduced demand from Asian buyers.

Primarily reflecting an upgraded outlook for South America, forecast 2014/15 world soyabean output is placed 3m t higher m/m, at a record of 317m, up 11% y/y. The increase is partly absorbed through higher use, while world end-season carryovers are also lifted, to a peak of 47m t, entirely due to the major exporters – seen more than doubling y/y, to 28m. Owing to a less pronounced rise in China’s imports, global trade is expected to expand by just 4% y/y.

Mainly because of weakness in wheat amid mostly good prospects for the 2015 harvest, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 2% m/m, to its lowest since July 2010.

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