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USDA Rice Outlook

15 May 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - May 2015USDA Rice Outlook - May 2015

USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2015/16 Rice Crop Forecast at 219.0 Million Cwt

The first forecast for the 2015/16 U.S. rice crop pegs production at 219.0 million cwt, down just 1 percent from a year earlier. Despite getting off to a slow start, planting of the 2015/16 rice crop is ahead of normal in all States accept Texas and Louisiana, with California well ahead. Total U.S. rice supplies are projected at 286.4 million cwt, the second highest on record. In 2015/16, a 35-percent increase in carryin and record imports are projected to more than offset the slightly smaller crop.

Total use of U.S. rice in 2015/16 is projected at 239.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record, with both exports and domestic and residual projected higher than this year. U.S. rice ending stocks are projected to increase 10.5 percent to 47.4 million cwt, the second highest since 1986/87, with a stocks-to-use ratio projected at 19.8 percent, the highest since 1992/93.

The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $10.00-$11.00 per cwt, down from a revised $11.80-$12.20 in 2014/15. The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $17.80-$18.80, compared with a revised $17.80-$18.20 in 2014/15. The 2015/16 all-rice SAFP is projected at $12.30-$13.30 per cwt, compared with a revised 2014/15 SAFP of $13.20-$13.60.

Global rice production for 2015/16 is forecast at a record 482.1 tons (milled basis), 6.4 million tons larger than a year earlier. East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to harvest record crops in 2015/16. Global rice consumption (including a residual component) in 2015/16 is projected at a record 489.0 million tons, exceeding production by 6.9 million tons and pulling stocks down to 91.5 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08.

Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.3 million tons (milled basis), a decline of 2 percent from this year’s record, but still the third largest on record. Thailand and India are projected to remain the largest exporters while China and Nigeria remain the top import markets.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 2-4 percent from a month earlier, largely due to a lack of new sales and a weaker baht. Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased slightly over the past month, with new sales slow. U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice and rough-rice have declined from a month earlier.

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