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USDA Oil Crops Outlook

15 May 2015

USDA Oil Crops Outlook - May 2015USDA Oil Crops Outlook - May 2015

USDA Oil Crops Outlook

Weaker Prices for Soybeans Seen With Ample Stocks Outlook

Based on a lower yield, U.S. soybean production for 2015/16 is projected down 3 percent to 3.85 billion bushels. But an increase for beginning stocks to an 8-year high would expand total supplies by 139 million bushels to a record 4.23 billion bushels. USDA forecasts that more robust competition for soybean exports in 2015/16 will trim U.S. shipments to 1.775 billion bushels from a revised 2014/15 forecast of 1.8 billion. With only a moderate increase in domestic use, season-ending soybean stocks could swell to 500 million bushels from 350 million this year. USDA sees this growing surplus pressuring the U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans to $8.25-$9.75 per bushel, compared to $10.05 for 2014/15.

At 317.3 million metric tons, USDA expects nearly no change for 2015/16 global soybean production. However, global soybean stocks in 2015/16 would continue to accumulate—by 12 percent to 96.2 million tons. Large carryover stocks could boost Brazil’s soybean exports in 2015/16 to a robust 49.8 million tons—possibly surpassing U.S. trade. In Argentina, a resurgent crushing industry could expand its soybean meal exports by 7 percent to a record 31 million tons. For China, slowing growth in protein meal consumption would limit the increase in 2015/16 soybean imports to 77.5 million tons from 73.5 million in 2014/15.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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