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USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

15 May 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - May 2015USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - May 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

Global Cotton Mill Use to Exceed Production in 2015/16

The initial U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2015/16 indicate that global cotton consumption will rise above production for the first time in 6 years (fig. 1). World cotton mill use is predicted to rise for the fourth consecutive season in 2015/16 to 115 million bales. Modest growth in world gross domestic product (GDP) and the lagged effect of lower cotton prices are expected to support consumption in most countries. China, India, and Pakistan are projected to lead global cotton mill use and account for a combined 63 percent of world consumption in 2015/16, similar to the current season.

World production is forecast at 111 million bales in 2015/16, the fourth consecutive decline as harvested area is projected to decrease 6 percent from 2014/15 and drop to its lowest since 2009/10. In addition to reduced area, acreage shifts to lower yielding countries are also contributing to the global crop reduction in 2015/16. Based on USDA’s initial projections, India, China, the United States, and Pakistan will account for a combined 73 percent of world cotton production in 2015/16, similar to 2014/15.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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