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Canadian Crop Statistics

26 June 2012

Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds - Review of April 2012 Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds - Review of April 2012

Canadian canola and wheat stocks down while total stocks of corn and soybeans at record levels
Canadian Crop Statistics

As of March 31, 2012, total stocks of canola and wheat were down compared with the same date in 2011 as reported in the May 7th release of Statistics Canada’s Field Crop Reporting Series (Stocks of Principal Field Crops). Total stocks of corn for grain and soybeans increased to record levels.

The March Farm Survey of 13,400 farmers concerning, among others, stocks of principal field crops was conducted from March 23 to 30, 2012. Farmers were asked to report the amounts of grain, oilseeds and special crops in storage on their farm. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission. Commercial stocks of corn and soybeans are estimated on the basis of a sample of grain elevators in Eastern Canada. Data on commercial stocks of special crops come from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.

Despite a record harvest of canola in 2011, total stocks were 4.3 million metric tonnes as of March 31, 2012, down 30.6% or 1.9 million metric tonnes from the same date in 2011. The drop was primarily in on-farm stocks, where levels fell by 1.7 million metric tonnes.

Total wheat stocks declined 8.4%, or by 1.3 million tonnes, to 14.5 million metric tonnes. This decline occurred despite a 9.0% increase in the production of wheat in 2011. Commercial stocks increased 10.8% to 4.7 million metric tonnes, while on-farm stocks fell 15.3% to 9.8 million metric tonnes.

Despite an 8.8% decrease in the production of corn for grain in 2011, stocks rose 8.1% from 2011 to a record 6.2 million metric tonnes in 2012. This level was 2.5% higher than the previous record of 6.0 million metric tonnes in March 2009. Commercial stocks were down slightly from March 2011 levels, while on-farm stocks were up 13.3% to 4.4 million metric tonnes.

Soybean storage was also at a record level in March 2012, as total stocks increased 19.0% to 1.9 million metric tonnes. Soybean production fell 2.3% in 2011 from a record high the previous year. The increase in total stocks was concentrated on farms, where stocks rose 34.4%.

USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates

The United States Department of Agriculture released their initial assessment of world crop supply and demand prospects on May 10, 2012.

Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 2 percent lower in the year as a 21.5 million metric tonne reduction in foreign production offset the increase in the United States output. At the projected 614.7 million metric tonnes, global production is down 15.5 million from 2011-12.

Global wheat trade for 2012-13 is expected to be lower than last year with world imports projected down 5.5 million metric tonnes to 122.7 million metric tonnes. Global wheat feeding is lowered 12.6 million metric tonnes from 2011-12 with lower expected supplies of feed-quality wheat and record projected coarse grain supplies. Global wheat consumption is projected down 7.2 million metric tonnes or 1% from 2011-12, as a small increase in food use in most countries partly offset the decline in global wheat feeding. Global ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected to be 170.6 million metric tonnes, down 8.0 million on the year.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-13 are projected at a record 1.3 billion metric tonnes, up 6% from 2011-12. Global corn production for 2012-13 is projected at a record 858.0 million metric tonnes, up 68.3 million from 2011-12, and the 6th straight year that world corn output has set a new record. Global corn trade is projected higher for 2012-13 with imports raised 6% mostly supporting higher corn feeding in China, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, EU-27 and the Middle East. Global corn food, seed and industrial use is also raised with increases in corn processing expected for China, Argentina, EU-27 and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 835.5 million metric tonnes, up 48.7 million from 2011-12 with more than half of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 138.2 million metric tonnes, up 22.5 million from 2011-12 and the highest since 2000-01.

Global oilseed production for 2012-13 is projected at a record 427.8millionmetric tonnes, up 8%from2011-12mainly due to increase soybean production. Global production is projected at 246.2 million metric tonnes, up almost 15% as production is increased in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay due to more favourable weather conditions. Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflower seed and rapeseed) is projected almost unchanged from 2011-12 as increased area is most offset by lower yields. Oilseed supplies for 2012-13 are up 3% from last year despite a 23% reduction in beginning stocks resulting from drought-reduced South American crops. With crush projected to increase 2.9%, 2012-13 global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 59.5 million metric tonnes, up 2.6 million from 2011-12 but still 14.3 million below 2010-11.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.8% in 2012-13. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 5% in China, accounting for about half of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 88.3 million metric tonnes, up 9% from 2011-12. China soybean imports are projected at 55 million metric tonnes, up 4.5 million from 2011-12.

Further Reading

You can view the latest USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by clicking here.

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

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