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USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

15 June 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - June 2015USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook - June 2015

USDA Cotton & Wool Outlook

Global Cotton Ending Stocks Lower in 2015/16

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections for 2015/16 indicate that global cotton stocks are expected to decrease for the first time since 2009/10 as mill use exceeds production. World ending stocks are projected at 106.1 million bales for 2015/16, 3.5 percent (3.9 million bales) below 2014/15.

Global cotton stocks have risen dramatically over the last several seasons, largely the result of growth in China’s stocks (fig. 1). Government policies in China supported national reserve purchases of domestic cotton and, at the same time, significant raw cotton imports; these policies strengthened global cotton prices by keeping China’s supplies out of the marketplace and encouraged production in other foreign countries. Stocks in China at the end of 2014/15 are estimated at a record 65.6 million bales, or 60 percent of global stocks. For 2015/16, policy adjustments in China are expected to reduce stocks—but only slightly—to 62.6 million bales, with its share of world stocks remaining mostly unchanged.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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