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IGC Grain Market Report

26 June 2015

IGC Grain Market Report - 26 June 2015IGC Grain Market Report - 26 June 2015

International Grain Council Grain Market Report


The projection for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2015/16 is only slightly lower m/m (month-onmonth), with a reduced figure for wheat partly offset by an upward revision for maize (corn). At 1,966m t, output is expected to be 2% down y/y (year-on-year), but 4% above the average in the prior five years. The consumption forecast is unchanged m/m, at 1,981m t, but owing to reduced opening inventories and lower production, carryover stocks are cut by 4m, to 422m, down 4% y/y. However, the ratio of stocks-to-use will remain comfortable.

While global rice production in 2015/16 is projected almost unchanged m/m, at a new record, the outlook is tentative, especially given uncertainty about the impact of El Niño on crops in Asia. Owing to reduced opening stocks, supplies are expected to tighten and, with uptake to expand further, world end-season inventories are forecast to drop to a six-year low. Major exporters’ stocks are seen declining by about one-quarter y/y, to 20.9m t, the smallest since 2007/08. World trade is expected to remain high on firm demand from Asia and Africa.

Global soyabean plantings could expand slightly in 2015/16 but, with average yields potentially retreating, production is likely to fall. Nevertheless, owing to large carry-in stocks, global supplies are anticipated to remain comfortable and, with processing and consumption expected to grow more moderately, world ending are set to rise to a fresh peak. The outlook for world trade is fractionally lowered but, at 122m t, would still be a new high, boosted by deliveries to Asian markets.

Amid less than ideal weather in some regions, uncertainty about crop prospects resulted in net gains in export prices during June, with the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) up by 4% m/m.

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