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USDA Rice Outlook

15 July 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - 15 July 2015USDA Rice Outlook - 15 July 2015

USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. Rice Production Forecast Lowered to 207.0 Million Cwt

The 2015/16 U.S. production forecast was lowered 12.0 million cwt to 207.0 million based on a smaller area estimate. Carryin was increased slightly. These revisions resulted in a 4- percent reduction in the 2015/16 total supply forecast to 278.4 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier.

On the use side, total domestic and residual use was lowered 1.0 million cwt to 130.0 million cwt while 2015/16 exports remain forecast at 110.0 million cwt. The tighter supply forecast was responsible for a 10.0-million cwt reduction in the 2015/16 ending stocks forecast to 38.4 million cwt, down 17 percent from a year earlier.

The 2015/16 U.S. season-average rough-rice price forecasts were raised for all rice, longgrain, and California medium- and short-grain rice. In contrast, the 2015/16 Other States medium- and short-grain season-average rough-rice price forecast was lowered from last month’s forecast.

Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 480.3million tons (milled basis), down 1.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but the highest on record. Production forecasts for 2015/16 were lowered for Australia, North Korea, Thailand, and the United States. With consumption exceeding production by 8.4 million tons, ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 8.5 percent to 90.5 million tons, the smallest since 2007/08.

Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.1 million tons (milled basis), 4 percent below this year’s record. A smaller 2016 export forecast for Thailand was partially offset by larger export forecasts for Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was also lowered.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have increased 3-5 percent from a month earlier, largely a response to concerns over a drought-reduced 2015/16 main crop. U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have increased over the past month as well. In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have declined slightly over the past month.

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