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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

17 July 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 July 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - 17 July 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Fewer Projected Imports from Mexico in 2014/15 Translate into Lower Ending Stocks

The USDA lowered total projected U.S. sugar supplies by 78,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) for 2014/15. Projected domestic production remains unchanged as an increase in projected cane sugar from Texas was offset by lower projected beet sugar due to a revised expectation for the 2015/16 sugarbeet crop. Projected imports for 2014/15 are lowered 78,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico are lowered 100,000 STRV to 1.426 million STRV, based on pace-to-date shipment data, relative competitiveness with raw sugar from TRQ countries, and the current stock levels of U.S. sugar refiners. Imports under quota are increased 22,000 STRV based on an announced increase of the FY2015 specialty sugar quota. Total use for 2014/15 remains unchanged at 12.085 million STRV, including domestic food and beverage deliveries that remain unchanged at 11.750 million STRV. The projected stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is 14.3 percent, down from the previous month’s projection of 15.0 percent.

Projected U.S. production for 2015/16 is raised 45,000 STRV, as projected beet sugar production declined 60,000 STRV and cane sugar production increased 105,000 STRV. Both changes were based on harvested acreage estimates reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Acreage report released on June 30. Projected imports under quota for 2015/16 are increased 121,000 STRV based on the announced specialty sugar quota for FY2016. Imports from Mexico are increased 27,000 STRV due to the increased calculated U.S. Needs formula, as specified in the suspension agreement signed by the United States and Mexico in December 2014. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2015/16 is 13.5 percent, up from the previous month’s projection of 12.6 percent.

Mexican sugar production for 2014/15 is projected at 5.985 million metric tons, actual weight (MT), increased 45,000 MT from the previous month based on updated weekly production data. Exports were lowered 136,000 MT to 1.370 million MT based on pace-todate data for shipments to both the United States and third countries. Changes in the 2014/15 outlook translate to a 180,000 MT increase to beginning stocks for 2015/16. Combined with a 23,000 MT increase in 2015/16 exports to the United States, the projected stocks-to-consumption ratio for 2015/16 is 28.2 percent, up from the previous month’s projection of 24.6 percent.

U.S. maple syrup production in 2015 increased 6.3 percent compared with the previous year to 3.4 million gallons. Prices reported in 2014 were $36 per gallon, the second straight year of yearly declines.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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