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USDA Wheat Outlook

17 August 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook - 17 August 2015USDA Wheat Outlook - 17 August 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook

Projected Ending Stocks Up From Last Month as Exports Are Down

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are lowered on a smaller crop and reduced imports. An increase in spring wheat production is more than offset by decreases for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat. Hard red spring wheat yields in North Dakota are forecast to be a record. Projected imports are lowered 5 million bushels on the larger U.S. hard red spring crop and lower Canadian production. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are projected 25 million bushels lower at 925 million on a slow pace to date and increased foreign supplies. Ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 850 million, the largest since 2010/11. The season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents on the low end and 20 cents on the high end to $4.65 to $5.55 per bushel.

A record-high 2015/16 global wheat crop is projected this month, with increases in the former Soviet Union (FSU-12) and Turkey that swamp reductions for Canada, Argentina, and the United States. Global wheat trade projected for 2015/16 is reduced somewhat this month, driven by lower Iranian imports, while both global feed use and record ending stocks are up. U.S. export prospects are reduced by strong competition.

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