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USDA Rice Outlook

17 August 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - 17 August 2015USDA Rice Outlook - 17 August 2015

USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. Rice Production Forecast Lowered to 205.0 Million Cwt

The 2015/16 U.S. rice production forecast was lowered 1 percent to 205.0 million cwt due to a lower yield. Production is 7 percent below a year earlier, with crops projected to be smaller in all reported States except Texas. Imports were raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 25.5 million cwt and beginning stocks were revised up 1.5 million cwt to 47.9 million cwt. Total supply is nearly unchanged from the previous forecast.

The 2015/16 total use forecast was lowered 4.0 million cwt to 236.0 million cwt, with forecasts for both combined domestic and residual use and for total exports lowered. The reduced total use forecast raised the ending stocks forecast 4.0 million cwt to 42.4 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier.

The 2015/16 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice was raised 60 cents on both the high and low ends to $11.50-$12.50 per cwt. The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $17.80-$18.80, with the California medium- and short-grain SAFP remaining at $20.50-$21.50 per cwt and the Other States 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP remaining at $14.30-$15.30 per cwt.

Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 478.6 million tons (milled basis), down 1.7 million tons from last month’s forecast but 2.4 million tons larger than a year earlier and the highest on record. Production forecasts were lowered for Argentina, Cuba, Iraq, South Korea, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Venezuela, but raised for Sri Lanka.

The 2016 global trade forecast was raised slightly to 42.3 million tons. Export forecasts were raised for India and Vietnam, but lowered for Argentina, United States, and Uruguay. The 2015 global trade forecast was reduced 1.2 million tons to 42.5 million tons, mostly due to a reduced forecast for Thailand exports.

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