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Canadian Crop Statistics

26 July 2012

Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds - Review of May 2012Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds - Review of May 2012

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reports the total production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is forecast to increase by 9% to 72 million metric tonnes in the publication Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook.
Canadian Crop Statistics

Overall supply is expected to increase by only 4% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports, total domestic use and carryout stocks are also forecast to increase but carry-out stocks are expected to be 13% below the 10-year average. Canola production is forecast at a record 15.1 million metric tonnes, up 7% from 2011/12. Production of wheat (excluding durum) is expected to increase 3% from 2011/12 to 21.8 million metric tonnes while durum wheat is expected to increase 17%.

Both barley and corn production are forecast to increase 19% over last year and oat production is expected to increase by 5%. Warmer and dryer weather in Ontario is resulting in a forecasted 3.5% decrease in national soybean production.

Pulses and Special Crops higher in 2011/12

In Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook, AAFC reports that production is expected to rise by 22% to 5.0 million metric tonnes while total supply is expected to increase by 7% to 6.2 million metric tonnes. Exports are expected to increase by 10% to 4.1 million metric tonnes due to the higher exportable supply and increased world demand.

Production increases are expected for dry peas, dry beans, chickpeas, canary seed and sunflower seed with decreases in production forecasted for lentils and mustard seed.

USDA releases updated supply and demand estimates

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updated world supply and demand estimates for 2012/13, forecasting lower wheat and higher coarse grain supplies Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 6.4 million metric tonnes with beginning stocks lowered 1.4 million metric tonnes and production expected down 5.0 million metric tonnes world-wide. Higher 2011/12 consumption, fueled by increased global trade, reduces carryin for 2012/13. World production for 2012/13 is lowered reflecting reduced crop prospects in several exporting countries including Russia, EU-27, Turkey and the US.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 4.2 million metric tonnes with reduced prospects for wheat feeding and food use. Global wheat exports are reduced 1.5 million metric tonnes with a reduction for Russia, Argentina and Turkey.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.4 million metric tonnes higher with increases in corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million metric tonnes mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 production for Brazil and China.

World corn production for 2012/13 is increased 3.8 million metric tonnes this month with increases in China, EU-27 and FSU-12. World barley production is forecast to be lower in 2012/13. Global coarse grain trade is projected higher as a result of increased imports and exports of corn. Corn imports are raised for EU-27 and Indonesia while exports are increased for Russia and Belarus. Global corn consumption is increased 2.2 million metric tonnes. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.1 million metric tonnes higher.

Global oilseed production for 2012/12 is projected at 427.1 million metric tonnes, down o.6 million metric tonnes, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production.

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