USDA Feed Outlook
18 September 2012
USDA Feed Outlook - September 2012
Higher Carryin Boosts U.S. Corn Supplies Despite Production Decline
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher this month, with a reduction in
forecast corn production more than offset by higher projected corn carryin. U.S. corn
production is lowered 51 million bushels, with the national average yield forecast 0.6
bushels per acre lower at 122.8 bushels. U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected
108 million bushels higher at 11,983 million bushels as an increase in expected
beginning stocks more than offsets lower production. Feed and residual use for 2011/12
is lowered 150 million bushels based on the record level of crop maturity and harvest
progress as of September 1. Early new-crop corn use is expected to displace use of 2011
old-crop corn and boost old-crop inventories on September 1.
Total U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is raised this month to 11,250 million bushels, with
higher expected feed and residual disappearance more than offsetting lower projected
exports. The projected season-average price for corn was reduced $0.30 on each end of
the range to $7.20 to $8.60 per bushel. World 2012/13 coarse grain production is
reduced this month, mostly due to drought in the EU, cutting corn prospects. Forecast
corn exports from South America are increased.
Corn Harvested before September 1, 1990-2012F

Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats and USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE
Domestic Outlook
Feed Grain Supply Advances in Spite of Lower Projected Corn Yield
The U.S. 2012/13 feed grain supply is forecast at 321.4 million metric tons, up 2.7
million from last month’s forecast and 37.0 million below last marketing year. An
increase in the feed grain supply is projected despite a reduction in estimated corn
and sorghum yields and subsequent production because carryin stocks are projected
higher. A decline in feed and residual use in 2011/12 is the primary contributing
factor to the 4.1-million-ton increase in beginning stocks this month. Forecast feed
grain production, at 284.5 million tons, is 1.3 million below last month’s forecast
and 39.0 million below last year.
Projected feed grain use for 2012/13 increased 0.6 million tons as larger forecast
feed and residual use offset a decline in exports. Total use is forecast 25.5 million
below last year at 300.1 million tons, compared with the 2011/12 estimate of 325.6
million. Feed and residual disappearance is projected 1.9 million tons higher this
month, in part reflecting growth in expected September-December corn
disappearance with an expected rise in early new-crop usage during the 2011/12
marketing year. Exports were lowered 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast
to 34.6 million. Ending stocks are forecast 2.1 million tons higher than last month’s
forecast, to 21.3 million.
Feed Use
When converted to a September-August marketing year, U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat in 2012/13 is projected to total 114.3 million tons, 0.2 million higher than last month’s estimate and 9.6 million below the 2011/12 revised estimate of 123.9 million. Corn is estimated to account for 92 percent of feed and residual use in 2012/13, up from 90 percent the previous marketing year.
US Feed Grain Production

Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Grain: Word Markets and Trade (Grain Circular).
US Corn Harvested Area and Yield

Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats and USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE.
The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2012/13 is 91.9,
down from 92.1 last month and 1.5 lower than last year’s estimate. The grain used
per GCAU is 1.24 tons, unchanged from last month and 0.1 ton lower than 2011/12.
In the index components, GCAUs are decreased for cattle on feed, other beef cattle,
and broilers from last month.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 28th and
will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2013. Higher feed
grain prices are a contributing factor to the lower carcass weights that are forecast
for the second half of the year and will ultimately contribute to a net reduction in
pork production.
Corn Yield Trimmed, Dampening Production Prospects
A 0.6 bushel per acre reduction in forecast yield pushed production down 51 million
bushels from last month’s forecast to 10,727 million bushels. Based on September
1 conditions, the national average corn yield is forecast at 122.8 bushels per acre,
24.4 bushels below last season’s estimated yield. The current yield is the lowest
since 1995/96, and production is forecast to be the lowest since 2006/07 when 18.1
million fewer acres were planted. Both planted and harvested acreage estimates are
unchanged from last month.
Projected beginning stocks for 2012/13 are raised 160 million bushels due to
reduced use in 2011/12. With imports unchanged, higher carryin offsets production
declines, resulting in higher projected supply. At 11,983 million bushels, projected
supply is 108 million greater than last month’s projection and 1.5 million bushels
below the last marketing year. Estimated supplies for 2011/12 are unchanged
this month.
US Cash Corn Prices, Number 2 Yellow at Selected Locations, Monthly

Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service, Feed Grains Database and USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, http://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/lg.
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average corn farm price is decreased 30 cents on both the high and low end to $7.20 to $8.60 per bushel, reflecting larger supplies and higher ending stocks.
Sorghum Production Nearly Unchanged
A slight reduction in the forecast U.S. sorghum yield resulted in a production
forecast of 246.0 million bushels, down 1.6 million bushels from last month.
Forecast production is 31.6 million bushels higher than last season’s harvest of
214.4 million bushels. The 2011/12 harvest was the lowest since 1956 when a
harvest of 204.881 million bushels was observed. The 2012/13 harvest remains on
track to be the second lowest since the mid-1950s.
Based on September 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is decreased 0.3
bushels per acre to 48.3 bushels. Yields are 6.3 bushels per acre lower than last
season due to persistent drought in many southern sorghum growing areas,
including Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas. The 2012/13 forecast yield is
slightly higher than the most recent low of 46.4 bushel per acre in 1980.
Sorghum use is unchanged from last month’s forecast; the decline in production
results in a 1.6-million-bushel reduction in projected ending stocks.
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average sorghum farm price is lowered
$0.20 on each end of the range to $6.80 to $8.20 per bushel, reflecting greater
supplies of feed grains.
US Grain Sorghum Prices, Number 2 Yellow at Selected Locations, Monthly

Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service, Feed Grains Database and USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, http://marketnews.usda.gov/portal/lg.
No Change to Barley and Oats Production
Production forecasts for U.S. barley and oats are unchanged from August. Supply
and use projections are also unchanged. Final estimates for 2012 will be reported in
USDA-NASS’s Small Grains 2012 Summary to be released at the end of
this month.
The 2012/13 season-average farm price for barley is projected to remain at $6.25
per bushel with a spread of $5.75 to $6.75. Feed barley prices are down slightly this
month from the previous estimate though they have risen 17.6 percent over those of
the previous year, in correlation with drought-influenced corn prices, to $5.75 per
bushel. Even with increased domestic stocks forecast for 2012/12, the malt barley
price is up 17.1 percent over that of the previous year and is adjusted upward from
last month’s estimate to $6.40 per bushel. The 2011/12 estimated price for all barley
is unchanged at $5.35 per bushel.
The 2012/13 projected oats price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the mid-point of the
range this month. Lower projected corn prices are the major driver of the
downward adjustment. The projected range is also tightened to $3.40 to $4.20 per
bushel, compared with $3.50 to $4.50 per bushel last month. The 2011/12 estimated
price for oats remains at $3.49 per bushel.
US Sorghum Harvested Area and Yield

Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats and USDA, World Agricultural.Outlook Board, WASDE
September 2012
Published by USDA Economic Research Service
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