USDA World Agricultural Production
12 September 2012
USDA World Agricultural Production - September 2012
Heat and drought reduce yields in North America and Europe, whilst South America reports record harvests, in the latest World Agricultural Production report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
European Union Corn: Summer Heat and Drought Damage
Corn production in the European Union (EU) is estimated at 57.1 million tons, down 4.4 million
or 7.1 percent from last month, and down 8.3 million or 12.6 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 9.1 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month’s 9.35 million, but up 0.3
million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.27 tons per hectare (t/ha) compared to
6.58 t/ha last month and 7.46 t/ha last year.
Yield potential has been falling rapidly in the EU since July when extremely high temperatures
inhibited pollination and drought limited kernel growth in much of the EU’s cornbelt. The EU
cornbelt is concentrated in France, Spain, Italy, and southeast Europe. The primary corn
growing areas have all struggled from excessive heat and moisture stress this season.
Early
expectations of a bumper crop declined when this unfavorable weather pattern emerged during
late spring. Weather and satellite data indicated high potential yield early in the season, but production is now estimated below last year’s 65.4 million tons and below the five-year average
of 57.6 million tons. Recent weather and satellite imagery depict a greatly deteriorated crop in
central Europe. During early and mid-August, analysts from the U.S. Department of
Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) conducted a crop assessment trip in Romania
and Bulgaria. The team traveled for two weeks, stopping in numerous fields to analyze
conditions and meet with farmers, agricultural industry leaders, and government officials. The
field trip confirmed the poor status of the crop.
Much of Hungary has seen no significant rainfall since July. The country will have a much
smaller crop, now estimated at 5.0 million tons compared to the 6.5 million tons estimated last
month and the 8.1 million ton crop from last year. France’s corn crop is estimated at 15.5
million tons, down 1.0 million from last month, but 0.5 million tons above the 5-year average.
Estimated production was lowered due to late season (August) heat that likely lowered yields at
the filling stage. In Italy, where half of the crop is non-irrigated, heat and dryness reduced
yields in the intensely cultivated Po River Valley, and estimated production was lowered by 0.7
million tons to 7.8 million. Romanian corn was lowered 0.6 million tons to reflect damage from
excessively hot temperatures (above 35°C during pollination) as well as from drought. The
result from the heat at pollination and the lack of summer moisture was poorly filled ears and
small kernels. Additional September changes to EU corn include Bulgaria (down 0.2 million
tons), Germany (down 0.2 million tons), Slovakia (down 0.2 million tons), Slovenia (down .05
million tons) and Poland (up .05 million tons.) (For more information, please contact Bryan
Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Canada Corn: Heat and Drought Reduce Estimated Yields
The USDA estimates Canada corn
production at 11.7 million tons,
down from last month’s estimate
of 12.8 million tons, but up nearly
9 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 1.4 million hectares,
up 16 percent from last year, due
to favorable planting weather.
Yield is estimated at 8.36 tons per
hectare, down 6 percent from last
month and below the 5-year
average of 8.91 tons per hectare.
Yield prospects vary across
eastern Canada. Some areas are
expecting average-to-above
average yields, whereas other
regions are reporting that hot and
dry conditions in July stressed the crop, resulting in poor pollination in various fields.
Precipitation throughout the summer was scattered in eastern Canada. Vegetative indices show
below normal conditions in some of the main corn producing areas in Ontario and Quebec. (For
more information, contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
Ukraine Sunflowerseed: Estimated Yield Reduced Following Excessive July Heat
USDA forecasts Ukraine
sunflowerseed production for
2012/13 at 8.5 million tons, down
0.7 million or 8 percent from last
month and down 1.0 million or 11
percent from last year. Harvested
area is estimated at 6.0 million
hectares, up 0.2 million from last
year. Yield is forecast at 1.42 tons
per hectare, down 6 percent from the
5-year average.
Weather was unusually hot during
June, July, and August in Ukraine’s
main sunseed region. The heat was
accompanied by below-normal
precipitation during much of the
growing season, but the most
significant weather event was the
excessive late-July and early-August
heat that prevailed as the sunflower
crop advanced through the flowering
stage. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, sunflowerseed harvest was 13 percent complete
by September 4 with yield roughly 25 percent lower, compared to the same date last year.
Harvest will continue throughout October. (For more information, please contact Mark
Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
Russia Wheat: Harvest Reports Suggest Remarkably Low Spring Wheat Harvest
Russia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 39.0 million tons, down 4.0 million or 9
percent from last month and down 17.2 million or 31 percent from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 22.5 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month and down 2.4 million from
last year. Total-wheat yield is forecast at 1.73 tons per hectare, down 7 percent from last month,
down 23 percent from last year, and 21 percent below the 5-year average. Winter wheat
accounts for about one-half of the total wheat area but about two-thirds of production due to
inherently higher yield.
The harvest of winter wheat
was essentially complete by
the end of August, with yield
down 30 percent from last
year, according to harvest
reports from the Ministry of
Agriculture. As of August 28,
yields were down by 23
percent from last year in the
Southern District (the
country’s top winter-wheat
region), down 41 percent in
the North Caucasus District,
and down 36 percent in the
Volga District. Only in the
Central District was the
reported yield higher than last
year, but by only 3 percent.
The spring-wheat harvest is in
progress in the Volga, Ural,
and Siberian Districts, with
early yields down significantly
from last year. The poor
harvest is attributed to
excessive and persistent heat and dryness in almost every major wheat-production region. In
terms of the overall impact on wheat production, the 2012 drought has been more destructive
than the drought of 2010. Although the heat and dryness were more severe in the areas where
the 2010 drought prevailed (chiefly the Central, Volga, and Ural Districts), the 2012 drought has
been more widespread and has sharply reduced yields in the Southern, North Caucasus, Volga,
Ural, and Siberian Districts. Estimated wheat production for 2012/13 is 6 percent below the
reported 2010/11 harvest of 41.5 million tons. (For more information, please contact Mark
Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
USDA has increased forecasts for the 2012/13 India cotton production to 24.5 million bales (480-pound bales), up 4.3 percent from last month, but down 3.0 million or 11 percent from last year. The increase is primarily due to higher than previously projected harvested area following improved monsoon rainfall in August and early September that encouraged plantings. Based on recent sowing progress reports USDA forecasts harvested area at 11.5 million hectares, up 0.7 million hectares or 6.5 percent from last month, but down 5.7 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 464 kilograms per hectare, down 2.1 percent from last month and down 5.5 percent from last year.
In August and early September the majority of cotton growing areas experienced improvements in monsoon rainfall. Overall monsoon rainfall across India improved to 14 percent below average compared to 22 percent the previous month.
Most regions saw significant improvements including North West, Central India, South Peninsula, and the East.
Rainfall encouraged growers to continue planting as indicated by the Government of India’s sowing progress reports.
Cotton planting is in progress and is expected to continue through September. This season, July through August was a very critical planting period across the country and the monsoon rains remained a major concern. According to the latest provisional planting estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture in India, total cotton planting at the end of August is reported at 11.15 million hectares, down from 11.77 million hectares compared to the same time last year. Planting progress continues to lag in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat which produce 21 and 28 percent of total India cotton respectively. The majority of the early planted crop is at squaring and first blooming stages. Inadequate rainfall, delayed planting and periodic moisture stress are likely to result in the significant yearto- year yield reduction. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)
Ukraine Soybeans: Harvest Forecast Near Record Despite Heat and Dryness
Ukraine soybean production for 2012/13 is forecast at 2.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from
last month and down about 0.1 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 1.3
million hectares against 1.1 million last year. Yield is forecast at 1.69 tons per hectare, down
from 1.92 tons last month. The month-to-month decrease in estimated yield is attributed to
excessive heat during July and August throughout the main production zone combined with
below-normal precipitation during much of the growing season.
Soybean production in Ukraine has increased ten-fold over the past 10 years, driven mainly by
rapidly expanding area but also to a steady and significant increase in yield. The crop’s
popularity is due to several factors, including high profitability relative to grains, and strong domestic demand from the crushing industry and the poultry and livestock sectors. (For more
information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
Brazil Soybean: 2011/12 Harvest Complete
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is estimated at 66.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from
last month and down 9.0 million or 12 percent from the previous year. Area is estimated at a
record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from the
previous year. Yield is estimated at 2.66 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and down
15 percent from the previous year’s record yield of 3.12 tons per hectare.
Estimated soybean production was raised by 1 million tons this month due to better than
expected harvest reports from the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso. This year’s
soybean yields were lower than the previous year even though La Niña events occurred during
both years. A severe La Niña drought this year reduced yields by more than 30 percent in the
southern state of Paraná and by more than 40 percent in Rio Grande do Sul. (For more
information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
Canada Barley: Area Harvested Returns to Pre-Flood Levels
USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada barley production at 9.5 million tons, up 22 percent from last
year. Area is estimated at 2.73 million hectares, up 15 percent from last year, due to favorable
planting weather. Yield is estimated at 3.48 tons per hectare, up 6.1 percent from last year.
Statistics Canada’s July 2012 Estimates of Production of Principal Field Crops released in late
August estimates planted area will increase 15 percent from last year due to favorable weather.
Area in Alberta, which produces 51 percent of total production, is expected be up by 11 percent
from last year. Saskatchewan, which produces 35 percent of total production, increased seeded
area by nearly 18 percent from the previous year.
Barley planting was completed in early June across the southern Saskatchewan and Alberta
prairies. Saskatchewan was the only province that was not able to complete planting because of
wet conditions. The Saskatchewan provincial government estimated that approximately 2 percent
of the crop was not planted because of localized flooding, which impeded seeding. Warm July
weather enabled the crop to compensate for earlier cool conditions. As of the third week in
August, reports from Alberta and Saskatchewan indicate harvest activities are slightly ahead of
normal, with Alberta having harvested roughly about 14 percent of the barley crop. The quality
of over 80 percent of the crop is reported to be good to excellent. (For more information,
contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
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